Goldman Sachs analyst warns that Trump tariffs could drive car prices up by up to $15K

Mark Delaney, a Goldman Sachs auto analyst, warned that a 25% Trump tariff on imported cars could raise the price by $5K to $15K depending on the market price of the car. Wall Street and investors disagreed with Trump, claiming that tariffs could increase production costs for automakers and dampen demand by raising prices for consumers. 

Goldman’s Delaney projected that prices paid by consumers at the yard/showroom could increase by $5,000 to $15,000 per vehicle, depending on how much of the car is imported. Trump’s tariff agenda was full of uncertainty for Wall Street, and many analysts at Bernstein also said the tariffs would add as much as $75 billion per year to automaker costs, which they would have to pass on to car buyers. 

Stock markets fell after news spread that auto tariffs would be imposed on all imported cars, and shares of major automakers tumbled even further in after-hours trading after the White House clarified that the tariffs would also cover imported auto parts. Shares of the Big Three U.S. automakers hit the skids Yesterday as General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) fell 7.4% and 3.9%, respectively, while Europe-focused Stellantis (STLA) dropped 2%.

Delaney predicts that Trump’s auto tariffs will push car prices up

“Goldman analyst Mark Delaney believes a 25% tariff on imported cars could raise the price by $5,000 to $15,000. Locally made vehicles would see their prices increase as well b/c of parts tariffs raising costs to make the vehicle by up to $8,000, he said.” https://t.co/EHrytKxlOo

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) March 27, 2025

Delaney and other experts predicted a price increase of up to $15K when Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars took effect early next month. Loop Capital’s Rick Paterson agreed that consumers should brace for ‘sticker shock’ as imported vehicle prices could increase, and even some local manufacturers could sneak in price hikes ‘under that higher umbrella’. 

Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska said that Trump’s tariffs represented a notable disruption to the global automotive model, estimating ‘an unmitigated sector-wide tariff impact’ of about $6.7K per vehicle. Guggenheim’s Ronald Jewsikow also estimated vehicle cost increases between $6K and $7K per unit, adding that ‘actual price increases to the consumer needed to offset the tariff were likely higher’.

However, Bernstein’s Roeska and Dan Levy of Barclays singled out Elon Musk’s Tesla as being the most insulated from the potential harm of the tariffs due to its domestic production.

“To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries.”

–Elon Musk, CEO Tesla and SpaceX

Delaney also projected that locally made vehicles would see their prices increase because of parts tariffs raising the cost of making the vehicle by up to $8K. Bank of America saw an increase of at least $4,500 per vehicle.

Auto industry receives news of Trump’s tariffs with mixed feelings 

Cody Lusk, president and CEO of the American International Automobile Dealers Association, said these new tariffs pose an additional and unwelcome challenge to affordability for auto dealers and their customers, who were already reeling from rising vehicle and parts prices, as well as high interest rates and insurance costs. He added that the tariffs will also put more pressure on the wallets of American families. 

Mike Stanton, president of the National Auto Dealers Association, also said that tariffs on U.S. trading partners—’ who were vital to the U.S. automotive supply chains’—would make it harder for average Americans to afford the new vehicles of their choice. 

Jennifer Safavian, president and CEO of Autos Drive America, claimed that the tariffs imposed today will make it more expensive to produce and sell cars in the U.S, ultimately leading to higher prices, fewer options for consumers, and fewer manufacturing jobs in the United States. Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions, also agreed that there were ‘very few winners’ from the tariff wars, and consumers would be the biggest losers because they would have reduced choice and higher prices.

However, the United Auto Workers union welcomed these tariffs, pointing out that they would push manufacturers to invest more in the U.S. and create more jobs. The union’s president, Shawn Fain, said these tariffs were a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country. He explained that it was now on the automakers to bring back good union jobs to the United States.

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