Asia’s economy will avoid a slowdown this year in spite of Trump’s tariffs

Asia will keep growing this year even though Donald Trump is pushing new tariffs on U.S. trading partners, according to a report released Tuesday by the Boao Forum for Asia during its annual meeting in China.

The report said growth across the region is expected to reach 4.5% in 2025, which is slightly higher than 2024’s 4.4%. It also said South Asia will lead the region with a 5.9% increase, based on data from researchers at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-run think tank.

The Boao Forum, which is sometimes called “China’s Davos,” warned that while Asia will face some pressure on trade and investment due to global issues, the region still has strong points that will keep it moving forward.

The report said, “Asia’s trade and investment will come under strain, but stand to benefit from a number of bright spots.” The report also called Asia a major engine for the global economy despite growing uncertainty around the world.

Trump’s trade tariffs trigger new pressure across the region

Trump plans to launch reciprocal tariffs on April 2, a date he called “liberation day” during a White House event on Monday. April 1 is when the U.S. will finish reviewing China’s trade record. At a Cabinet meeting earlier the same day, Trump announced that new tariffs would hit industries including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors. Later that same day, he added that the U.S. would also charge 25% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela.

China and India are two of the economies most exposed to Trump’s planned tariffs. The Boao Forum’s report didn’t skip over the risk. It clearly stated that the pressure from the U.S. president’s trade moves will affect countries that are still heavily tied to exports, especially exports to the U.S. A separate January report by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said it expects Asia’s 2025 growth to slow to 4.2%, lowered from earlier projections because of the impact from the tariffs.

Even with that, the Boao report said the unemployment rate in Asia will stay around 4.4%, which is better than the global average of just under 5%. But it also said inflation will get worse in 2025 due to a mix of higher wages, rising shipping costs, currency drops, and continued supply chain restructuring.

At a press conference held to launch the report, Zhang Jun, secretary general of the Boao Forum, said, “Today’s world is undergoing profound changes. Challenges and uncertainties are piling up and concerns in the international community are growing in face of the various turmoils in the whole world.”

Regional trade, e-commerce, and services support Asia’s growth

According to the Boao Forum’s findings, goods trade in Asia is starting to bounce back, and services trade is growing fast, especially in tourism, transportation, and digital services. The report said China played a major role in this growth, with both its goods and services trade numbers hitting record highs in 2024. These trade flows helped push the region forward despite global disruptions.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has made regional trade even more connected, with intra-RCEP trade growing about 3% year-on-year in 2024. The trade deal helped several member economies boost their regional links, but not all members are using the full set of trade rules, according to the report. That low use rate is still holding back the deal’s potential.

E-commerce is also playing a bigger role. The report said ASEAN’s e-commerce gross merchandise value grew by 15% year-on-year, which shows the speed of digital growth in Southeast Asia. Digital trade is now a major part of how business is done across Asia, and this shift is creating new growth outside of traditional sectors.

At the same time, Asia’s financial markets remain stable. The report said most major economies in the region will keep accommodative monetary policies, which means they’ll likely keep interest rates low to keep economies running.

Even though foreign investment from outside Asia has been inconsistent, intra-regional foreign direct investment is holding strong, as China, Japan, and ASEAN countries remain the main places where money is flowing inside the region.

But the report didn’t sugarcoat the problems. It said Asia’s market integration is not complete, and many countries are still too dependent on exports to Europe and the United States. It also said that policy coordination and trade dispute solutions need more work, which makes it harder to streamline trade between countries in the region.

The Boao Forum also warned that sustaining growth across Asia will require more regional cooperation, better integration, and more investment in services and digital industries. Without those things, it’ll be harder to keep up momentum.

Markets react as Trump teases flexibility on tariff rollouts

Trump’s behavior on tariffs remains inconsistent. He said at a Monday event that he might offer “a lot of countries breaks” from the tariffs. He didn’t explain exactly who would get these exceptions or how they’d be decided.

When someone asked if all sector-specific tariffs would start on April 2, Trump answered, “Yeah, it’s going to be everything,” before walking it back by saying, “but not all tariffs are included that day.”

Markets didn’t know how to take that. On Monday, U.S. stocks jumped after Trump hinted that the tariffs might not be as severe, as the S&P 500 surged by 1.76%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite went up by 2.27%. Tesla’s stock spiked by 11.9%, its best single-day gain since November 6, as Cryptopolitan reported.

Across the Asia-Pacific, markets reacted in mixed ways. On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 went up by about 0.5%, with the country’s 5-year bond yield hitting 1.165%, the highest since October 2008, based on data from LSEG. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell by more than 2%, showing that not all investors are buying into the idea that Trump’s flexibility means less damage.

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