Asset manager Bernstein says Trump will push Coinbase stock up 60%

Coinbase’s stock COIN is about to see a massive surge, according to investment firm Bernstein, which has initiated coverage on the crypto exchange, giving it an outperform rating and setting a $310 price target. That’s 64% higher than Monday’s closing price. Coinbase has been struggling in 2025, with the stock down 24% as the post-election momentum faded.

But Gautam Chhugani, an analyst at Bernstein, says that’s about to change, and the reason is President Donald Trump, who has completely changed the government’s stance on crypto. His administration has already established a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and appointed David Sacks as the crypto czar.

“With the Trump administration’s aspiration to make America the ‘crypto capital of the world,’ Coinbase remains the dominant platform to ride the tailwinds,” Chhugani said.

Trump’s pro-crypto stance could boost Coinbase stock

The administration is pushing pro-crypto legislation, starting with a stablecoin bill expected in the first half of 2025. A second bill, coming later in the year, will clarify digital asset securities and market structure. This could bring more competition from banks, brokers, and fintechs, but Chhugani isn’t concerned.

“We expect a strong bull market and rising U.S. onshore dominance to more than offset any competitive market share and pricing pressures,” he said.

Coinbase is also expanding beyond trading. The company has built an ecosystem that includes USD stablecoins and staking services. Chhugani expects non-trading revenue to grow at a 31% compound annual growth rate. “Coinbase has done well to build a suite of crypto financial services beyond trading,” he added.

Despite Bernstein’s confidence, analysts are split on Coinbase. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it as a buy, while 15 have a hold rating, according to LSEG.

Brian Armstrong: Trump’s policies are transforming crypto in the U.S.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong was at the White House after Trump signed an executive order establishing the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Speaking with CNBC on March 7, he said the administration’s approach is a “sea change for our industry.”

“President Trump has breathed life back into this industry,” Brian said. He confirmed that Coinbase is planning to hire over 1,000 employees in the United States due to the resurgence of crypto.

Brian also addressed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, calling it “a really big deal.” He believes it could push other governments to follow.

“The U.S. leading on this front is going to cause the rest of the G20 to take notice,” he said. He compared Bitcoin to a new gold standard, adding, “Government should hold a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.”

The U.S. government already holds $17 billion worth of Bitcoin, some of which was seized by law enforcement. But Brian confirmed that the reserve won’t just hold seized Bitcoin. “In this new reserve, they’re actually planning to buy Bitcoin in a budget-neutral way so that it doesn’t affect taxpayers,” he said.

The market didn’t react as expected. Bitcoin’s price didn’t surge immediately, and Brian admitted he was surprised. “If the United States government came out and said it’s going to be a holder of Bitcoin indefinitely and actually a buyer of Bitcoin in a budget-neutral way, I would have expected the price to rally even further,” he said.

“But whatever is happening in the short term, I’m confident that in the long term, this is going to be an upward trend for Bitcoin.”

There are also questions about who will manage the Bitcoin reserve. Some believe Coinbase is in the running, but Brian said no decision has been made.

“That wasn’t discussed today, and I think that there should be a fair and transparent process for various companies to bid,” he said. He pointed out that Coinbase has provided crypto custody and trading services to the U.S. government for years. “I hope that we get to throw our hat in the ring there as well,” he said.

Not everyone in the crypto community is happy with the way the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is structured, as some believe the U.S. government should commit to buying more Bitcoin instead of taking this budget-neutral approach they’re taking.

But Brian disagrees, siding with the president yet again as he has been doing since the campaign. “I think it’s smart they did it in a budget-neutral way,” Brian said said. David Sacks, along with president Trump himself have already confirmed that any crypto assets acquired by the U.S. government will be held, not sold.

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