Markets are preparing for the most volatile day of 2025 yet when Trump talks to Putin tomorrow

Markets are on edge as President Donald Trump prepares to speak with President Vlad Putin on Tuesday about ending the Ukraine war. The conversation is expected to focus on territorial concessions, nuclear control, and a possible ceasefire, all of which could shake global markets.

Wall Street analysts are already warning of instability, and traders are bracing for major swings in stocks, commodities, and crypto.

Trump confirmed the call during a press conference Sunday aboard Air Force One while flying back to Washington from Florida. “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end,” he told reporters. “Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.” He also revealed that the weekend had been spent laying the groundwork for the discussion.

Trump negotiates ceasefire terms with Putin

The U.S. president is trying to secure Putin’s support for a 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine has already agreed to. But the situation on the battlefield is far from calm. On Monday, both sides continued launching heavy aerial strikes, and Russian troops pushed further into western Kursk, a region where Ukrainian forces have been holding ground for months.

Asked about what’s being negotiated, Trump said, “We’ll be talking about land. We’ll be talking about power plants … We’re already talking about that, dividing up certain assets.” Though he didn’t elaborate, one major issue in the talks is control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe. The facility is currently under Russian control, and both Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of reckless actions that could cause a disaster.

Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that the conversation would take place but refused to discuss Trump’s comments on land and energy assets. Meanwhile, Trump’s team has been busy behind the scenes. On Friday, Putin sent a message to Trump about the ceasefire via U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, who had met with Kremlin officials in Moscow. Putin expressed “cautious optimism” that an agreement could be reached.

Despite that, Trump’s advisers are clear that nothing is guaranteed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Witkoff all appeared on Sunday TV shows to emphasize that there are still major obstacles before a full ceasefire deal can be made.

Wall Street faces uncertainty as Trump’s call looms

Markets are already feeling the pressure. The S&P 500 is struggling to maintain a second consecutive positive session, but even a slight gain isn’t enough to convince Morgan Stanley. The firm’s chief strategist, Michael Wilson, warned investors on Monday that the market is fragile.

“The 5,500 level on the S&P 500 should create a tradable rally,” Wilson told clients, but he wasn’t optimistic about the long-term outlook. “The more important question is whether such a rally extends into something more durable and marks the end of the volatility seen year to date. The short answer is, probably not.”

At midday trading, the S&P 500 was up only 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite had slipped by 0.4%. Wilson pointed out that major indexes like the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000 Growth, and Russell 1000 Value were still trading below their 200-day moving averages, meaning the market’s momentum remains weak.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets also see risks ahead. Lori Calvasina, the firm’s head strategist, lowered her “bear case” target for the S&P 500 from 5,775 to 5,500. The revision means that, even in the worst-case scenario, losses for the year would be somewhat limited. “We think this is a reasonable way to estimate where the S&P 500 could land by the end of 2025 if the index falls significantly below its recent lows,” she explained in a client note.

The uncertainty isn’t just about Ukraine. Trump’s upcoming tariff policies are another major source of market anxiety.

Trump’s tariff plans add to market pressure

Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, warned on Monday that investors should prepare for more economic uncertainty in the coming weeks. The U.S. is rolling out new tariff plans on April 2, and businesses are still trying to make sense of what’s coming.

“Absolutely, between now and April 2, there’ll be some uncertainty,” Hassett said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. He insisted that once the tariff details are announced, things will stabilize.

Trump’s tariff policies have already disrupted markets. The administration has announced new duties on Mexico, Canada, and China, with the goal of forcing tougher immigration enforcement and cracking down on fentanyl trafficking. Some businesses have complained about the confusion, but Hassett defended the move.

“These policies have led to very positive developments on border security and trade,” he said.

Meanwhile, market analysts are paying close attention to how investors react. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said, “Any day where the president doesn’t talk about tariffs is a good day for the market.” When asked about that remark, Hassett responded, “There should be clarity, absolute clarity.”

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