Not ruling out recession: VP Vance says you can never predict the future

Like Trump, Vice President JD Vance has little to say about recession. He gave a vague answer in an interview about the R word, saying that you can’t know what will happen in the future. He did say, though, that the economy is strong.

Vance said that the fundamentals of the economy are quite strong right now. He also said that President Trump’s administration will make the economy stronger over the long haul by restoring some of those critical supply chains and getting more businesses to invest in American workers.

The US has reached this point because of Trump’s policies, the major one being tariffs. However, the vice president emphasized that Trump’s tariffs are his way of fighting back economically against years of unfairness by some US partners, such as the EU.

He also said that the administration wants to eliminate China’s provision of the nation’s most basic needs. The US depends most on imports. According to Vance, through tariffs, many businesses will return to the US. 

Meanwhile, the most recent numbers show that inflation is going down. Experts say that the chances of a downturn are rising because of his policies. Trump warned that price drops will be hard to achieve and that people should expect a “little disturbance” before he can bring wealth back to the US. So, is the “little disturbance” going to translate into a recession?

The recession risks continue to rise

In the US, a recession is a long-lasting and common drop in economic activity that is usually marked by a rise in unemployment and a drop in income. Well, DOGE has been doing the most when it comes to unemployment. Luckily for them the judge has ordered the president to employ the people that DOGE fired.

A study from JP Morgan raised the chance of a recession from 30% at the beginning of the year to 40% now, saying that US policy was “tilting away from growth.” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, also raised the chance, saying that tariffs were to blame.

Also, last week, Goldman Sachs raised its bets on a recession from 15% to 20%. The company said that changes in policy were the key risk to the economy. But it said that the White House still had the choice to back off if the risks to the downside became more clear.

However, they warned that If the White House remained committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data, recession risk would rise further. Trump has not shown concerns about the markets like he did in his first term when he often used the stock market to measure his own success. 

The S&P 500 fell sharply, proving the analysts right. This shows fears about the future because it has dropped to its lowest level since September.

Tariffs are one reason the market is in such a mess. Trump put new taxes on goods from the United States’s three biggest trade partners and threatened to do so more generally. Analysts think these actions will raise prices and slow down growth.

The latest official US inflation numbers, on the other hand, showed that prices rose less quickly in February. The Labor Department said that prices rose 2.8% in the year ending in February, which is less than the 3% rise seen in January.

Many businesses are seeing their profit margins drop. They are also putting off investments and hiring while they try to figure out what the future holds. Analysts say that this year, economic growth is expected to slow.

JD Vance shows Musk support as the judge orders Fed employees to be rehired 

In a new interview, JD Vance praised Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and denied rumors that the billionaire and other cabinet members are at odds with each other.

He said, “I don’t think there’s tension […] There’s certainly disagreement. From time to time, we’re not going to agree on everything.”

He also said that Elon is doing a great job. He added, “Marco [Rubio], I think, is doing an incredible job as Secretary of State…So the fact that you disagree at a meeting, that does not mean that you have misalignment.”

Meanwhile, two federal judges have said that President Trump’s government has to hire back the thousands of probationary workers who were fired from different agencies. Judge William Alsup of the California District Court said that people who lost their jobs at the Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, Energy, Agriculture, Interior, and other agencies must get them back.

US District Judge James Bredar also made a similar decision. He told 18 agencies that fired workers had to be brought back to work for at least 14 days. After that time, the judge will consider whether to continue the order or issue a longer-term injunction while the case is being heard in court.

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