Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC hovers $82,500 as global de-risking intensifies on recession fears

• Bitcoin hovers around $82,500 on Wednesday after recovering 5.52% the previous day.
• A K33 report highlights heavy sell-offs in equities and crypto markets amid rising concerns over a fragile global economy.
• Traders should remain cautious as the upcoming US macro data releases could bring more volatility in risky assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) price hovers around $82,500 on Wednesday after recovering 5.52% the previous day. A K33 report highlights heavy sell-offs in equities and crypto markets amid rising concerns over a fragile global economy. Traders should remain cautious as the upcoming US macro data releases could bring more volatility in risky assets like Bitcoin.

Crypto markets see heavy sell-offs amid heightened global economic concerns — K33 reports

Tuesday’s K33 Research ‘Ahead of the Curve’ report explains that equities and crypto markets have been hit with heavy sell-offs as concerns about a fragile global economy have heightened. 

Increased recession fears, US President Donald Trump’s commitment to lowering 10-year bond yields, and the first swings of a bubbling trade war have pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to lows not seen since mid-September. Similarly, BTC reached new yearly lows of $76,555 and saw a weekly return of -5%. 

The report continues that while many Trump measures have contributed to spooking the market into heavy de-risking, the President has delivered his crypto promises by establishing a crypto working group and launching a US BTC reserve last week. This justifies BTC’s relative outperformance compared to equity indices since the election.

The graph below shows the major asset returns since the election (left) and the inauguration day (right). Since the election, BTC’s performance has been 13%, outperforming other asset classes. However, its performance since the inauguration (January 13 market close) has been negative 25%, the second worst-performing asset (Ethereum is -46%).

Major asset returns: Since election vs. inauguration chart. Source: K33 Research

“We fundamentally disagree with pundits attributing the recent sell-off to an underwhelming US reserve,” reports a K33 analyst. 

The analyst continues, “This reserve is a watershed moment for Bitcoin. The US government has committed to hold seized assets and even explore paths to acquire more BTC in the market. This is a huge leap forward in legitimizing BTC as a global store of value and is a massive disconnect from its recent performance driven by other market forces. While global market uncertainties may need time to be resolved, we perceive current price levels and the period ahead as a solid opportunity to buy and hold BTC long-term.”

In an exclusive interview with FXStreet, Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics, explained that Bitcoin’s decline, despite favorable regulations and rising BTC reserves, is largely driven by macroeconomic concerns, particularly tariff disputes between the United States, Canada, India, and other countries. He noted that this has prompted a shift towards liquidity, with ‘investors taking profits and adopting a more cautious stance.’

Balina also predicted continued volatility, highlighting the $70,000 support level but warning that the prevailing bearish and risk-off sentiment leaves room for further downside.

Bitcoin price could expect volatility around the upcoming FOMC meeting

Traders and investors are closely watching the US macroeconomic data releases – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday – which could bring more volatility for risky assets like Bitcoin and shape the direction of equities and digital assets ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on March 19.

In an exclusive interview, Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, told FXStreet, “The FOMC meeting this week will likely result in the Federal Reserve keeping rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with a neutral-to-cautious tone.”

Lee continued though a hawkish shift could emerge if inflation concerns resurface. Crypto prices like Bitcoin might stagnate or drop from their current $83,000-$76,000 range, especially if a hawkish outcome strengthens the US Dollar (USD) and yields, pressuring risk assets. 

“Even a dovish surprise like a rate cut may fail to ignite a sustained rally, given potential market skepticism and overriding macro uncertainties. At the same time, the end of quantitative tightening offers only modest support at best,” Lee explained.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: RSI bounces off oversold conditions

Bitcoin price broke below its 200-day EMA at $85,664 on Sunday and declined 9.14% until the next day. However, BTC pushed lower, found support around the $76,600 level, and recovered 5.52% on Tuesday. At the time of writing on Wednesday, it hovers at around $82,500.

If BTC continues to correct and closes below $78,258 (February 28 low), it could extend the decline to retest its next support level at $73,072.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 39, pointing upwards after bouncing off from 30 on Monday, indicating fading bearish momentum and a potential shift from oversold conditions. However, the RSI must move above its neutral level of 50 for the recovery rally to be sustained.

BTC/USDT daily chart

If bullish momentum mounts, BTC could extend the recovery to $85,000.