Trump’s crypto summit: BTC, XRP, ETH, and SOL primed for volatile weekend

The crypto market’s volatility index could shoot up further this Friday as investors brace for the upcoming White House digital currency summit. Trump’s announcement of a US Crypto Strategy Reserve last weekend set off a wave of market reactions. Now, the upcoming White House Crypto Summit is expected to heighten the market’s volatility as investors wait to see what Washington will say.

Last Sunday, Bitcoin gained to $95,283, but selling pressures pushed the asset to $81,740 by Tuesday, a 14.2% drop. The leading cryptocurrency has rebounded today, reaching $91,362 by the early morning trading hours, recovering nearly 10% from its 7-day lows.

According to data from CVI, the crypto market volatility index has surged by 12.5% since the start of March, now standing at 62.71. However, the number is down 9% compared to last week’s high of 69.34. Analysts predict the index will go higher when Trump and crypto executives meet at the end of the business week.

One of the bold forecasts surrounding the summit is the potential announcement of a strategic reserve that will include Bitcoin exclusively. But Trump, through a Truth Social post made last week, proposed involving other crypto assets, including Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), to form the reserve. 

Crypto markets eye a weekend of volatility

According to Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital, implied volatility metrics on major derivatives exchange Deribit show that investors expect turbulent price movements over the weekend.

“Options markets are showing the nerves (and illiquidity) going into the weekend and the raft of potentials,” Anderson said in a recent interview. “The Friday vs. Saturday IV [implied volatility] spread is nearly 25 vols wide across the board, with Friday expiries missing the expected variance.”

Implied volatility tracks the expected price swings of an asset based on the cost of options contracts. As of early Thursday, Bitcoin options expiring on Friday had an annualized implied volatility of 56%, while those expiring on Saturday were priced at 80% volatility. 

The 24-point gap spells the market’s expectation of increased price turbulence after the summit takes place. 

STS Digital analysis also anticipates BTC’s price swing of approximately $5,000 in either direction between Friday and Saturday morning. Ethereum and Solana, which have also shown signs of market uncertainty, could experience price movements of $135 and $13, respectively.

Anderson cautioned investors that largely “awaited” volatility events often fail to materialize as dramatically as traders expect them to. 

“Quite often, large expected volatility like this is a disappointment in crypto as expectations exceed reality,” he surmised, while also reiterating that options are a safer play for traders who want to take a chance in the digital market price movements.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana; bear markets continue

As of the time of this publication, Bitcoin was trading at $92,340 as it consolidated ahead of the summit. Analysts have spotted the coin’s immediate resistance at $93,581, while its support lies between $90,283 and $90,867. A deeper retracement could bring BTC into a liquidity zone between $87,636 and $88,375.

Ethereum has shown early signs of recovery, changing hands at $2,283 with modest gains of 2.6% in the last day. The asset is holding above the psychological $2,200 support level, with momentum indicators suggesting a possible reversal on the green side. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37.32, treading oversold conditions. Yet, resistance at $2,325 needs to be broken before further upside can be confirmed.

XRP is facing potential downside risk as analysts warn of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern forming on its daily chart. The price, currently at $2.33 per Coingecko data, is testing critical support at $2. If this level breaks, market watchers predict waves of panic selling that could drive XRP down to $1, a 58% decline from its price now.

Lastly, Solana, trading at $148, continues to consolidate within a narrowing range following its pullback from all-time highs achieved in January. Resistance is seen at $151, while the primary support zone remains between $142 and $146. Technical indicators such as the RSI (43.35) and MACD convergence signal a possible trend reversal if buying pressure increases.

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