Bitcoin goblin town incoming – Arthur Hayes predicts BTC will fall to $70K, regards ETFs

Bitcoin “goblin town” is incoming, says BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. According to him, Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 if large hedge funds exit their positions in US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The leading crypto coin has slid below $90K.

Arthur Hayes said that big hedge funds that are playing the ETF arbitrage game are starting to get out of their positions. This is putting more selling pressure on Bitcoin. He explained that a lot of the people who own IBIT are hedge funds that bought ETFs and sold CME futures to get a higher yield with less risk than short-term US Treasuries. 

#Bitcoin goblin town incoming:
Lots of $IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short term US treasuries.

If that basis drops as $BTC falls, then these funds will sell $IBIT and buy back CME futures.

These… pic.twitter.com/3PskTxrBPR

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 24, 2025

To that end, he posited that there could be large outflows from spot BTC ETFs such as the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). He said,  “If that basis drops as $BTC falls, then these funds will sell $IBIT and buy back CME futures.”

The funds are currently in profit. Arthur said that given that the basis spread is close to Treasury yields, “they will unwind during US hours and realize their profit,” plunging BTC back to $70,000. 

When this happens on a large scale, the planned unwind causes many spot ETFs to be sold off, and futures prices go up. This pressure to sell makes Bitcoin’s price drop to present market lows. This could lead to a feedback loop where more funds rush to get out of their positions.

US Bitcoin ETFs see their second-biggest outflows of the year

On-chain data shows that $516.4 million left US spot-listed  BTC ETFs on Monday. This was the second-biggest outflow of the year. The ninth net outflow in 10 days shows that people are becoming less confident in the biggest crypto coin, whose price has been stuck between $94,000 and $100,000 for most of the month.

To be more exact, a lot of money left a few Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Fidelity’s FBTC had a net weekly outflow of $165.51 million. Ark 21 Shares’ ARKB lost a total of $107 million, and Bitwise saw its assets drop by $105 million.

Grayscale’s GBTC and BTC funds lost a total of $93.6 million and $61.1 million, respectively, each week. During these bad times, Vaneck’s HODL stood out as one of the few bright spots, bringing in a net of $4.31 million.

In the same light, Bitcoin CME’s yearly basis has dropped to 4%. This is the difference between the spot price and the futures price. This is the lowest it has been since ETFs began selling in January 2024. 

At the current level, the basis trade is less than the ‘risk-free rate’, the 5% yield on the US 10-year Treasury. Because of the difference, investors may decide to close their investments in favor of a bigger return.

On the other hand, Ether ETFs showed some hope with a small net weekly inflow of $1.6 million. This showed that investors were only slightly interested in ether-based assets.

Bitcoin slides below 90K

Bitcoin is still trading in the red. It hit a low of $88,200 early today. This was the lowest level since mid-November. Yesterday, it fell 4.89%. This drop in price caused a wave of selling in the crypto market that lost $1.34 billion and 367,500 buyers in the last 24 hours. 

The largest single liquidation order happened on Binance – BTC/USDT, worth $20.80 million. Also, since it was recently hacked, Bybit has lost about $2 billion in Bitcoin from its funds.

Currently, the most valuable crypto has shown weakness. However, it was able to stay above $90K on the day that the Trump administration said it would start imposing tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods that had been put off for a while. 

In the past 30 days, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by almost 15%. This is happening at a time when the economy is unstable, and people are looking for safe-haven assets like gold. Gold hit eleven record highs in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin sits at $89,040.

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