The S&P 500 officially hits a new all time high, now up +4.5% year-to-date

The S&P 500 index has broken records again, closing at 6,129.58 on Tuesday. It touched an intraday peak of 6,129.63 earlier, pushing its year-to-date gains to 4.5%, according to data from Google Finance. Investors keep piling in, even as inflation worries and President Donald Trump’s trade policies hang over the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moved though, adding 10 points, or 0.02%, to land at 44,556.34, and the Nasdaq Composite managed to close at 20,041.26, gaining 0.07%, per Google Finance data. Stock futures didn’t do much overnight, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edging up less than 0.01%, while Dow futures added 18 points, or 0.04%, according to data from CNBC.

Meta drops as earnings shake up after-hours trading

Not every stock had a winning day. Shares of the Facebook and Instagram parent ended the day 2.76% lower at $716.37 a share. The stock is up 22.35% this year, making it the winning name of the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of U.S. megacap technology companies.

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said in a note that the market is staying strong despite negative sentiment. “The stock market’s resiliency has been impressive year-to-date as investors refuse to ‘back down’ in the face of rising negative sentiment and concerns about tariff and inflation headlines,” he said.

The stock market has actually been on a wild run for two years. The S&P 500 gained 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2023. With dividends, those numbers jump to 25% and 26%, but JPMorgan analysts say a repeat in 2025 not likely.

Since 1928, this kind of winning streak has only happened once—during the late 1990s tech boom. Historically, the US stock market averages 10% annual returns, according to data from Dimensional. Adjusted for inflation, that drops to 6.5%-7%, a trend that McKinsey data tracks back to 1800. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said investors have been spoiled by back-to-back 20% years.

Scott Wren, a senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, doesn’t see another 20%+ gain happening. “Do we expect an S&P 500 Index three-peat in 2025? In short, no,” he wrote in a Wednesday market note.

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