Stellar bulls aim for double-digit rally ahead

• Stellar price trades above $0.45 on Friday after rallying more than 32% so far this week.
• On-chain data paints a bullish picture as XLM Open Interest and TVL are rising.
• A daily candlestick close below $0.31 would invalidate the bullish thesis.

Stellar (XLM) extends its gains, trading above $0.45 on Friday after rallying more than 32% this week. On-chain data indicates further rally as XLM’s Open Interest (OI) and Total Value Locked (TVL) rise. Additionally, the technical outlook suggests a rally continuation projection of further 40% gains.

Stellar bulls aim for a 40% rally 

Stellar price found support around the $0.31 daily level on Monday and rallied more than 27% in the next three days. At the time of writing on Friday, it continues to trade higher by 4%, around $0.45.

If XLM continues its upward trend, it would extend the rally by 40% to retest its November 24, 2024, high of $0.63.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 60, above its neutral value of 50 and points upwards, indicating a bullish momentum. The daily chart's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bullish crossover on Tuesday. The MACD (blue line) crosses over the signal line (orange line), giving buy signals and suggesting an upward trend.

XLM/USDT daily chart

Coinglass’s data shows that the futures’ Open Interest (OI) in XLM at exchanges rose from $126.86 million on Wednesday to $274.11 million on Friday, reaching the highest level since December 10, 2024. An increasing OI represents new or additional money entering the market and new buying, which suggests a rally ahead in the Stellar price.

Stellar Open Interest chart. Source: Coinglass

Data from crypto intelligence tracker DefiLlama data shows XLM’s TVL increased from $44.95 million on Tuesday to $54.59 million on Friday and has been constantly rising since the end of December 2024.

This increase in TVL indicates growing activity and interest within the Stellar ecosystem. It suggests that more users deposit or utilize assets within XLM-based protocols, adding credence to the bullish outlook.

Stellar TVL chart. Source: DefiLlama

However, the bullish thesis would be invalidated if Stellar’s daily candlestick closes below $0.31; XLM would extend the decline to retest its next support level at $0.29, its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).