BoE expected to stand pat as investors look for signs of further interest-rate cuts in 2025
- The Bank of England is set to keep the interest rate on hold, hinting at 2025 action.
- UK inflation accelerated further in November, albeit within expectations.
- GBP/USD trades within a well-limited 200 pips range ahead of the announcement.
The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its decision on monetary policy on Thursday after completing the last meeting of 2024. The BoE is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark rate on hold at 4.75%, resulting in a measly 50 basis points (bps) trim throughout 2024. At the time being, financial markets are pricing in another 63 bps in cuts for 2025, down from 80 bps a week before.
BoE's cautious approach to rate cuts persists
The odds for additional interest rate cuts ahead decreased following the release of the United Kingdom's (UK) monthly employment report, which showed an unexpected uptick in wages. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, a key measure of wage growth, rose by 5.2% in the three months to October, surpassing estimates of 5% and higher than the previous 4.9%.
The figures struck a chord, although inflation figures released afterwards were in line with expectations.
On Wednesday, the UK reported that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% on a yearly basis in November, higher than the 2.3% posted in October, yet matching the market’s expectations. Core CPI annual inflation, in the meantime, rose to 3.5% in November, above the previous 3.3%, while below the market consensus of 3.6%.
It is worth noting that yearly inflation posted an encouraging 1.7% in September, with the subsequent increase reinforcing BoE’s cautious stance amid concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.
Ahead of the event, Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview that the BoE could be on track for four interest rate cuts over the next year if inflation continues its downward path. Yet before such comment, he also said the BoE would need to take a “gradual” approach to lowering rates. The latest employment and inflation-related figures reinforce the idea of a cautious approach and, hence, the expected on-hold decision.
Beyond the decision itself, market players will also pay attention to how voting splits. The nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are responsible for making decisions about the bank rate. They can vote to cut, hike or keep interest rates on hold. The more votes in one direction or the other, the more the market will see it as a hint of future action. For this December meeting, market participants anticipate eight MPC members will vote to keep rates on hold and one member to vote in favor of a cut.
Finally, the BoE will release alongside the Monetary Policy Report a document explaining what backed their decision and, more relevantly, officials' economic outlook, the latter seen as a hint towards future decisions.
Federal Reserve’s hawkish cut
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deserves a separate chapter ahead of the BoE’s decision, as the United States (US) central bank announced its decision on monetary policy late on Wednesday, boosting demand for the US Dollar (USD) across the FX board.
The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) as widely anticipated. Yet, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot triggered a risk-averse reaction, as policymakers confirmed an upcoming pause in rate cuts through 2025. Updated projections and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference showed officials opted for a more cautious approach amid sticky inflation and the return of former President Donald Trump to the White House.
The announcement pushed the USD sharply up while stock markets collapsed. The GBP/USD pair posted a fresh December low of 1.2560, bouncing just modestly afterwards.
How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD?
As said, the BoE is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold. The decision is largely priced in, which means the British Pound (GBP) will hardly react to the announcement unless there is a huge surprise. The news market mover will be the MPC voting spread. The more members vote for a cut, the more dovish will be seen the decision and could result in a GBP slide. The opposite scenario is also valid. Finally, speculative interest will assess the Monetary Policy Report and Governor Bailey’s words to determine how hawkish or dovish the BoE is today.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “In the case of a dovish outcome, GBP/USD could turn bearish. Still, if the announcement aligns with recent Bailey’s comments on four rate cuts coming in 2025, the decline could be shallow, given that it would lack the surprise factor that usually results in wider price reactions. On the contrary, a hawkish surprise or hints of fewer rate cuts next year could result in GBP/USD turning bullish.”
Bednarik adds: “The GBP/USD pair trades at levels last seen in November, in the Fed’s aftermath, and looks poised to extend its decline, particularly if the fresh monthly low at 1.2560 gives up. The next relevant support comes at the 1.2486 November low, while a break below the latter exposes the 1.2420 price zone. A critical resistance level is the former December low at 1.2698, en route to the top of the recent range at 1.2810.”
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Economic Indicator
BoE Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP.
Read more.Next release: Thu Dec 19, 2024 12:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 4.75%
Previous: 4.75%
Source: Bank of England
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