Last set of data before the Fed interest rate meeting – Commerzbank

Today's inflation data for November will be the last data point before next week's FOMC meeting. Since the blackout period has already begun, there won’t be any further comments from FOMC members. The interpretation of today's data is therefore left to the individual, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

USD can see another boost

“It should be noted that in recent months, the monthly rates of change in US core inflation were actually a bit too strong to be consistent with the 2% inflation target (as measured by the PCE index, which is the relevant measure for the Fed).”

“In November, core inflation could rise a little more moderately month-on-month, paving the way for a rate cut in December, even though the 0.23% our economists are expecting is still a little too high. If the data are in line with expectations, though, not much should change in terms of interest rate expectations.”

“However, if the data surprises on the upside, the doubts of the market, which is not fully pricing in the cut next week anyway, would increase and the dollar could see another boost.”