China: Towards a rocket propelled recovery? – Rabobank

In the past few weeks, China’s Politburo, several ministries and the PBOC have announced a slew of stimulus packages, Rabobank’s economist Teeuwe Mevissen notes.

Balance of stimulus set to shift towards fiscal stimulus measures

“While these, seen together, are significant, it is unlikely that they will be enough for a strong and durable recovery. We therefore expect more stimulus measures going forward.”

“The balance of stimulus will probably shift from mainly monetary- towards fiscal stimulus measures. For a maximum impact arising from economic stimulus, measures should aim at increasing domestic (private) demand.”

“Our expectations of more fiscal stimulus, could (depending on the size and focus) lead to higher growth in 2025, which means that, if so, we would have to revise our GDP forecast of 4.8% higher.”