Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Seiji Adachi said on Wednesday that “if inflation moves sustainably, stably around 2%, the BoJ can guide monetary policy in a way allowing for policy rate to move roughly in line with neutral rate.”
If chance of underlying inflation exceeding 2% heightens, the BoJ will raise its policy rate at pace exceeding rate of inflation.
Given uncertainty over outlook, cannot project specific level of neutral rate.
Consumption moving in line with trend projected by the BoJ.
Output, exports and capex firm but corporate sector appears to be lacking momentum.
Cannot ignore overseas economic uncertainties for time being.
Reversal of Yen weakness may intensify, put downward pressure on consumer inflation.
I am somewhat cautious on whether firms will continue sufficient wage hikes next year.
Given global uncertainties, we must scrutinize developments in next year's wage talks.
Key to next year's wage development is corporate profits, whether external demand and capex have room to expand further.