DXY: Technical rebound on the daily charts – OCBC

Dollar Index (DXY) held on to recent gains amid relative calm (no fresh tariff angst). While tariff uncertainties linger, recent developments pointed to signs of de-escalation. DXY was last at 99.62 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Rebound risks likely

"Last week, Trump hinted at significantly reducing tariffs on China and insisted that his administration was talking with China on trade (even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations). Treasury secretary Bessent also indicated that the tariff standoff between US and China is 'unsustainable' and that tensions could de-escalate in the coming months."

"We reiterate that the narrative of de-escalation in tariffs persisting for a while more can aid USD short covering (especially against safe haven proxies such as JPY and CHF), following the >10% decline (at one point) since Jan peak. The broad USD bounce may also see some regional FX come under pressure in the interim."

"Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose. Rebound risks likely. Resistance at 100.10, 100.80/101 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough, 21 DMA). Support at 99.10, 98.60 levels."