GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3300 mark; downside potential seems limited
- GBP/USD lacks any firm intraday direction and oscillates in a range at the start of a new week.
- The USD preserves last week’s recovery gains from a multi-year low and acts as a headwind.
- Bets for a less dovish BoE and hopes for a UK-US trade deal to limit the downside for the major.
The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band around the 1.3300 round-figure mark during the Asian session.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves last week's recovery gains from a multi-year low amid the uncertainty over US-China trade talks, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he did not know if US President Donald Trump had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping. This keeps a lid on the optimism led by Trump's assertion that tariff talks with China were underway and underpins the USD's relative safe-haven status.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws some support from the upbeat domestic data released on Friday and hopes that the UK will strike a trade deal with the US soon. In fact, UK Retail Sales unexpectedly rose by 0.4% in March following the previous month's downwardly revised growth of 0.7%. For the first quarter as a whole, retail sales rose by 1.6% - marking the strongest reading in four years and tempering market expectations for a more dovish Bank of England (BoE) rate-cut path going forward.
In contrast, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year. This, along with concerns about the economic fallout from Trump's trade policies, is holding back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets and lending some support to the GBP/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful downside for spot prices.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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