US Dollar gains as Trump threatens tariffs against BRICS, boosting the Greenback
- The US Dollar Index soars above 106.50 on Monday.
- DXY surges higher driven by Trump's warnings on tariffs against BRICS nations
- Strong November ISM manufacturing PMI helps the USD.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, has surged above the 106.50 level on Monday, the first trading session in December. This move higher has been driven by several factors, including news that US President-elect Donald Trump favors imposing tariffs on goods from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and other nations interested in joining a future BRICS currency. Strong PMI data from November from the ISM has also helped the DXY get a boost.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar gains nearly 1% at the start of the week
- News of Donald Trump planning to impose tariffs on countries who intend to join the BRICS currency has strengthened the US Dollar.
- On the data front, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 48.4 in November, signifying a milder rate of contraction in the US manufacturing sector compared to October's value of 46.5.
- The Employment Index within the PMI survey rose to 48.1 in November from 44.4 in October, indicating an improvement in job creation within the manufacturing sector.
DXY technical outlook: Upward trajectory likely to continue with resistance at 108.00
Technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are signalling that the recent period of consolidation for the Greenback may be coming to an end.
In that sense, the 108.00 level could be re-tested. In addition, the recovery of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has improved the short- term outlook.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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