USD: Payrolls reaction may get mixed up with Middle-East turmoil – ING

The US Dollar (USD) has continued to receive substantial support from rising oil prices. The latest rally in crude was driven by President Biden saying that strikes on Iran's oil facilities were being considered as part of Israel's retaliation. The commodities market assumption was probably that Biden would have tried to prevent supply disruptions and an oil price shock before the election, hence the surprise, FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

Payrolls and Middle-East conflict to drive DXY movements

“Today, the reaction to US jobs data will likely be combined with geopolitical and commodities' spillover into FX, rates and equities. The consensus payroll number is 150k, but a greater focus should be on the unemployment rate, which is expected to have flattened at 4.2%. Our economists' estimate is 115k for payrolls and 4.3% for the unemployment rate.”

“That probably doesn't change the picture for the Federal Reserve, which should still cut by 25bp in November and push back against 50bp for the time being. However, some hawkish repricing in the USD OIS curve has already happened this week, and the dollar could correct lower on a slightly soft jobs report.” 

“But even assuming the Middle East situation doesn't spiral further and oil prices ease back, a substantial US data disappointment is likely needed to revive front-end USD rates bulls. Our view is that markets will gradually align with the Dot Plot's 25bp pace of easing and that dollar downsides are limited into the US election. Our rates team believes that 10-year Treasuries can head back to 4.0% in the near term should we see a consensus payroll print today.”