US Dollar licks its wounds after one of worst weeks in over a year
- The US Dollar steadies on Monday after a steep 1.76% sell-off last week, the worst in more than a year.
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell committed to a September interest-rate cut in its Jackson Hole speech.
- The US Dollar index trades above 100.00 with US data underway this week.
The US Dollar (USD) is trading broadly flat on Monday after printing one of its worst weekly performances since June 2023. The US Dollar Index – which weighs the value of the US Dollar against a bucket of other currencies – shed 1.75% last week, with the latter part of those losses driven by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s words in Jackson Hole. Now that Powell has committed to a rate cut in September, markets could start to speculate over what this means for the Fed’s meeting in November and further down the line.
Concerns could already start to pick up on Monday as the economic calendar features the often market-moving Durable Goods Orders numbers. Should overall US data remain resilient or even pick up pace, what would it mean for the Fed’s commitment to cut in September? Strong data could bring the scenario of a one-and-done rate cut, which would be taken by markets as a very cold shower.
Daily digest market movers: Left in the dark
- Tensions grew over the weekend between Israel and Hezbollah with several attacks from both sides.
- The United Kingdom is on a bank holiday this Monday, which means reduced flows during the European trading session.
- In the US economic calendar, the Durable Goods Orders data for July are due to come out at 12:30 GMT:
- Headline Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound to a 4% increase from the 6.7% plunge seen a month earlier
- Durable Goods without Transportation are expected to be unchanged following the prior month’s 0.4% increase..
- Revisions to the previous month’s data could be more market-moving than the actual number.
- Equities trade on the backfoot this Monday as traders engage in profit taking after the steep surge from Friday, which was caused by the dovish message from Fed Chairman Powell.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 61.5% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 38.5% chance for a 50 bps cut. Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 36.3%, while there is a 47.9% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps + 50 bps) below the current levels and a 15.8% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps + 75 bps) basis points lower.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.78%, a fresh three-week low.
Economic Indicator
Durable Goods Orders
The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.
Read more.Next release: Mon Aug 26, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4%
Previous: -6.6%
Source: US Census Bureau
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: The beginning of the end
The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a substantial move lower last week, snapping several important support levels, as markets are pricing in aggressive rate cuts by November. Expectations could be going too far, as the Fed appears unlikely to start cutting by 50 bps or more in the current scenario of a soft landing for the US economy.
For a recovery, the DXY faces a long road ahead. First, 101.90 is the level to reclaim. A steep 2% uprising would be needed to get the index to 103.18 from the current 101.00. A very heavy resistance level near 104.00 not only holds a pivotal technical value, but it also bears the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the second heavyweight to cap price action.
On the downside, 100.62 (the low from December 28) tries to hold support, although it looks rather feeble. Should it break, the low from July 14, 2023, at 99.58 will be the ultimate level to look out for. Once that level gives way, early levels from 2023 are coming in near 97.73.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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