Dow Jones Industrial Average flattens after volatile week

Fonte Fxstreet
  • Dow Jones is set to end the week close to where it started.
  • The major equity index recovered after Monday's thousand-point plunge, but nothing more.
  • Markets now pivot to focus on next week’s inflation data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is trading mostly flat on Friday, testing the water near the week’s opening bids after a run of volatility sparked by broad-market concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might have missed the train on rate cuts. A turn towards the softer side in US data prints late last week sparked a risk-off plunge across the global markets, coupled with an unwinding of the Yen carry trade after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ended favorable rate differentials.

Forecasting the Coming Week: US CPI and Fed’s easing should rule the sentiment

After kicking off the trading week with a thousand-point plunge, the Dow Jones is back to where it started, paddling around 39,400.00. Investor hopes for an “emergency rate cut” from the Fed failed to materialize after markets realized that six-digit US Nonfarm Payrolls jobs growth, unemployment below 5%, steady wage growth, and week-on-week jobless claims within long-term averages may not be the economic disaster it was made out to be last week.

Still, market focus remains squarely on the odds of a September rate cut. Rate markets have fully priced in the start of a rate cutting cycle when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 18, but bets of an initial double cut for 50 basis points have eased to slightly-better-than-even from nearly 70% earlier this week. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in 53.5% odds of a 50 bps cut in September, with an additional two cuts worth 25 basis points apiece through the remainder of 2024.

Coming up next week, investors will get a fresh batch of inflation data to worry about, with US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation on the cards for Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. US Retail Sales and another update from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey Index are also due later next week. Core PPI inflation and headline CPI inflation are both still stuck around 3% YoY, and investors will be hoping for a continued easing in the prints to keep the Fed on the rails toward rate cuts.

Dow Jones news

The Dow Jones remains on-balance on Friday, with the index split fairly equally between winners and losers. Intel Inc. (INTC) fell back another 4.4%, declining below $20.00 per share as the tech company continues to run out of ways to push its otherworldly P/E ratio back above 100.00. After roughly $4 billion in quarterly earnings missed estimates by $150 million, the company doubled down on keeping investors happy by immediately announcing layoffs of 15,000 people. 

Dow Jones technical forecast

Friday’s flat-footed candlestick puts the Dow Jones entirely below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for an entire trading week, a feat the index hasn’t accomplished since mid-April’s swing low. The index still remains sharply down from record highs set at 41,371.38 in July, having fallen -7.22% peak-to-trough.

Despite a soft patch, the index is still holding ground in bull country above the 200-day EMA at 38,025.14, and buyers will take any excuse to reignite the furnace and gets bids back into the high side.

Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones FAQs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

 

Isenção de responsabilidade: Apenas para fins informativos. O desempenho passado não é indicativo de resultados futuros.
placeholder
Previsão de preço da Worldcoin: O WLD deve superar esses máximos iguais para que os detentores de tokens obtenham ganhos de 20%O preço da Worldcoin subiu 25% desde o início da recuperação do mercado mais amplo em 18 de outubro.
Autor  Mitrade Team
09 nov. 2023
O preço da Worldcoin subiu 25% desde o início da recuperação do mercado mais amplo em 18 de outubro.
placeholder
Previsão do preço do ouro: XAU/USD mantém ganhos em meio à aversão ao risco e à queda dos rendimentosO preço do ouro se agarra a ganhos decentes acima de 0,15% durante a sessão norte-americana de terça-feira, em meio à aversão ao risco, juntamente com a força geral do dólar americano (USD).
Autor  FXStreet
10 jan. 2024
O preço do ouro se agarra a ganhos decentes acima de 0,15% durante a sessão norte-americana de terça-feira, em meio à aversão ao risco, juntamente com a força geral do dólar americano (USD).
placeholder
A Apple ignorou os avisos dos engenheiros sobre tecnologia de IA defeituosaA Apple supostamente ignorou os avisos dos engenheiros sobre sua Apple Intelligence defeituosa e lançou a tecnologia, recebendo críticas desanimadoras do mercado. A Apple Intelligence, da fabricante do iPhone, ganhou as manchetes pelos motivos errados e recebeu críticas generalizadas, especialmente por inventar informações falsas e manchetes de notícias erradas. Os engenheiros descobriram falhas em muitos modelos, incluindo Apple Intelligence [...]
Autor  Cryptopolitan
1 Mês 20 Dia Seg
A Apple supostamente ignorou os avisos dos engenheiros sobre sua Apple Intelligence defeituosa e lançou a tecnologia, recebendo críticas desanimadoras do mercado. A Apple Intelligence, da fabricante do iPhone, ganhou as manchetes pelos motivos errados e recebeu críticas generalizadas, especialmente por inventar informações falsas e manchetes de notícias erradas. Os engenheiros descobriram falhas em muitos modelos, incluindo Apple Intelligence [...]
placeholder
Nancy Pelosi registra novas negociações de ações de IA antes da dent do presidente TrumpA representante da Califórnia, Nancy Pelosi, divulgou novas negociações de ações, que incluíram sete investimentos envolvendo ações de inteligência artificial, no dia da posse do presidente dent Donald Trump. De acordo com registros recentes divulgados em 20 de janeiro, Pelosi realizou um total de nove negociações, a maioria focada em ações relacionadas à IA. As aquisições incluem NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Tempus AI, [...]
Autor  Cryptopolitan
Ontem 01: 33
A representante da Califórnia, Nancy Pelosi, divulgou novas negociações de ações, que incluíram sete investimentos envolvendo ações de inteligência artificial, no dia da posse do presidente dent Donald Trump. De acordo com registros recentes divulgados em 20 de janeiro, Pelosi realizou um total de nove negociações, a maioria focada em ações relacionadas à IA. As aquisições incluem NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Tempus AI, [...]
placeholder
O preço do ouro atinge seu nível mais alto desde 6 de novembro em meio a novos temores de guerra comercialO preço do ouro (XAU/USD) atrai algumas compras de acompanhamento pelo segundo dia consecutivo e sobe para seu nível mais alto desde 6 de novembro, em torno da região de US$ 2.726 durante a sessão asiática de terça-feira.
Autor  FXStreet
21 horas atrás
O preço do ouro (XAU/USD) atrai algumas compras de acompanhamento pelo segundo dia consecutivo e sobe para seu nível mais alto desde 6 de novembro, em torno da região de US$ 2.726 durante a sessão asiática de terça-feira.
Produtos relacionados
goTop
quote