US Dollar dips amidst mixed S&P PMI figures and steady Fed dovish outlook
- US Dollar DXY declines towards 104.20 after mixed S&P PMIs
- Fed's steady dovish bets also added to the decline.
- PCE, durable goods orders, Q2 GDP revisions will be the highlights on Thursday and Friday.
On Wednesday, the US Dollar as measured by the DXY index went on a dip towards 104.20, largely influenced by mixed S&P PMI figures and the markets continuing to bet on a dovish Federal Reserve's (Fed) outlook.
With signs of disinflation steadily emerging, market participants are growing confident of a potential rate cut in September, yet the Fed officials continue their cautious approach, remaining dependent on the data. As such, attention is turning to key upcoming data, namely core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Thursday and Friday.
Daily digest market movers: DXY down as markets digest economic figures from the US
- The US private sector continued healthy expansion, with S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 55 from June's 54.8.
- Counterbalancing this, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from June's 51.6, while Service PMI rose slightly from 55.3 to 56.
- The CME FedWatch Tool continues to back a likely rate cut in September, although upcoming GDP and PCE data will largely determine the DXY dynamics for the remainder of the week.
Daily digest market movers: DXY flashes bearish signals
The DXY displays a neutral to bearish outlook, with key indicators remaining largely in the negative zone, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Meanwhile, bearish signals from a completed cross-over between the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the 104.80 area remain, and the index has fallen below the 200-day SMA confirming a negative outlook. Support lies at 104.15, and 104.00, with resistances identified at 104.30 and 104.50.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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