O aumento dos rendimentos do Tesouro é o maior desafio para o mercado altista de Trump
Os investidores de Wall Street que esperavam por um tradicional Rally do Papai Noel para encerrar o ano ficaram desapontados até agora. Os futuros de índices de ações sugerem dificuldades contínuas para as ações, após uma queda de 1,1% no S&P 500 no final da semana passada.
Segundo economistas, 2024 foi um ano recorde para Wall Street. O S&P 500 atingiu 57 máximos recordes, colocando-o entre os cinco melhores anos em termos de recordes de todos os tempos. No ano passado, o Nasdaq Composite ganhou mais de 31%, o S&P 500 subiu 25% e o Dow Jones Industrial Average subiu modestos 14%.
No entanto, o aumento dos rendimentos das obrigações apresenta desafios para as ações. O rendimento de referência do Tesouro de 10 anos fechou na semana passada em seu nível mais alto em sete meses. Desde Setembro, os rendimentos subiram quase um ponto percentual, mesmo depois de a Reserva Federal ter cortado a sua taxa de juro de referência.
Os rendimentos do Tesouro podem pressionar as ações
Os analistas atribuem o aumento dos rendimentos dos títulos às preocupações com as políticas tarifárias e fiscais do dent eleito Donald Trump. Estas políticas poderiam alimentar a inflação e expandir o defi federal, aumentando a oferta de obrigações e reprimindo os preços.
Julian Emanuel, estrategista da Evercore ISI, alerta que os rendimentos de longo prazo poderão continuar a exercer pressão de médio prazo sobre as ações, mesmo que as condições económicas mais amplas permaneçam favoráveis.
“ O aumento dos rendimentos das obrigações de longo prazo representa o maior desafio para o mercado altista no início de 2025 ”, escreveu Emanuel numa nota recente, apontando para o aumento da volatilidade do mercado accionista após a reunião de Dezembro da Reserva Federal.
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Emanuel emphasized that while bond yields may pull back slightly in the short term due to elevated Treasury short positions and easing geopolitical tensions, the medium-term outlook remains challenging. The interplay between rising bond yields and equity valuations will be crucial in determining market trends in early 2025.
The strategist also predicts that a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5% is manageable for equities, but a breach of 4.75% could trigger a deeper correction. Notably, stocks have shown resilience in periods of rising yields, advancing 117% since the bond market trough in 2020.
However, during periods when yields surpassed 4.5% or 4.75%, equities posted negative returns of -2.1% and -3.7%, respectively.
Corporate earnings bolstered by economic resilience
In 2024, earnings growth extended beyond the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, with the other 493 S&P 500 companies exiting their earnings recession. According to FactSet data, S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 15% year over year in 2025.
Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist, notes that this earnings growth will likely sustain the bull market. “The weight of evidence suggests the primary market trend remains higher, driven by earnings growth in 2025,” Lerner stated in his market outlook.
The broader U.S. economy has also demonstrated resilience. November retail sales exceeded expectations, GDP growth remains above trend at 3%, and the unemployment rate continues to hover around 4%. While still elevated, inflation has shown signs of moderation, giving investors hope for a “soft landing” where prices stabilize without significant job losses.
Market tailwinds and headwinds into 2025
Several tailwinds are supporting market optimism heading into 2025. Record corporate profits are expected for a second consecutive year, with net profit margins projected to remain nearly 12%. Sectors beyond technology, including health care, industrials, and materials, are anticipated to see profit increases in the high teens.
However, headwinds are where economists are expressing little to no optimism. Federal Reserve officials now project the federal funds rate to fall to 3.9% in 2025, an increase from their earlier September estimate of 3.4%.
While the Fed delivered a substantial 50 basis point rate cut in September, most adjustments over the past year have been in smaller 25 basis point increments. The latest projections suggest the central bank anticipates two more rate cuts in 2025, down from the four cuts previously forecast in September.
BREAKING: Fed projections imply 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, another 50 bps in 2026.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 18, 2024
If interest rates are not accordingly cut in 2025, given the Federal Reserve’s commitment to combating inflation, it may risk a policy error that could potentially harm the labor market.
Additionally, analysts reckon that the Trump administration’s policies, while business-friendly, could introduce growth challenges through higher tariffs.
Tech stocks, which have driven much of the market’s gains, face potential stagnation as investors grow wary of excessive spending on artificial intelligence without corresponding earnings growth. While a collapse in tech valuations is unlikely, a moderation in valuations could shift investor focus toward undervalued sectors like health care and materials.
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