Bitcoin corre risco de queda de US$ 20 mil com o fechamento de dezembro: o que saber sobre Bitcoin esta semana
Nas últimas semanas, Bitcoin exibiu um padrão de consolidação ascendente em torno da região de resistência de US$ 108.000. Esta fase foi perturbada pelo aumento da pressão de venda e da actividade de distribuição por parte dos grandes participantes no mercado, levando a um declínio acentuado de 15%. O preço encontrou suporte em aproximadamente US$ 90.000, coincidindo com o limite médio de um canal de preços de alta de longa data. Esta zona representa uma linha crítica de defesa contra correções mais profundas. A análise técnica destaca que uma recuperação dos atuais níveis de suporte poderia abrir caminho para uma nova tentativa de recuperar a marca de US$ 108.000. Por outro lado, a falha em manter o suporte pode resultar em uma correção mais significativa, com o limite inferior do canal perto de US$ 75.000 emergindo como o próximo nível de suporte principal. Como visto no gráfico diário do BTC, o suporte temporário surgiu perto da linha de tendência inferior em US$ 94.164, alinhando-se com as principais médias móveis. Os indicadores sugerem uma potencial recuperação a curto prazo; no entanto, o sentimento geral permanece mais pessimista do que não. Dados recentes do TradingView refletem a luta contínua do Bitcoin , com o BTC/USD ainda caindo US$ 13.000 em relação aos máximos históricos da semana passada. De acordo com o trader e analista Rekt Capital, o BTC fez uma formação de castiçal Bearish Engulfing no gráfico semanal. Esta evolução, juntamente com a perda de níveis críticos de suporte semanal, sinaliza o fim de uma tendência ascendente de cinco semanas. #BTC Gráficos de negociação intradiária Bitcoin : consolidação ascendente e retração recente
Indicadores de baixa pesam sobre a ação dos preços
O suporte semanal foi perdido (azul)
A tendência técnica de alta de 5 semanas acabou (laranja)
Bitcoin está mostrando sinais crescentes de transição para uma correção de várias semanas
Qualquer manifestação de socorro, se necessária, para esses antigos apoios poderia transformá-los em uma nova resistência a… https://t.co/ZpfhWCtdt6 pic.twitter.com/U7d2zGOnpf
Rekt Capital further warned of Bitcoin’s potential transition into a multi-week correction phase. Any relief rally may face resistance at previously lost support levels, reinforcing the likelihood of additional downside continuation.
Indicators such as the RSI (14), currently at 42, show mild recovery but remain in bearish territory. Similarly, the Stochastic RSI’s bullish cross in the oversold region suggests short-term upward momentum, though the MACD’s bearish crossover persists, indicating weakening momentum.
Holiday trading periods often introduce heightened volatility due to reduced liquidity in the market. As liquidity profiles thin during these out-of-hours trading sessions, price movements can become exaggerated.
Market commentator Mark Cullen identified two critical liquidity zones into 2025: $115,000 and sub-$80,000. He questioned which level would be tested first and suggested the potential for significant price swings to target both.
A drop to $80,000 would align with historical bull market corrections. Glassnode’s data indicates that prior Bitcoin cycles experienced dips of 20% or more on the path to new all-time highs.
Interestingly, the severity of #Bitcoin drawdowns during bull market uptrends has declined as the market grows. The deepest drawdown this cycle was -32% (Aug 5, 2024), with most corrections only -25% below local highs, reflecting spot ETF demand & rising institutional interest. pic.twitter.com/wpanco629S
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 21, 2024
Despite the current cycle’s relative stability, the deepest drawdown of -32% in August 2024 echoes the crypto’s inherent volatility. Spot ETF demand and rising institutional interest have also tempered with price fluctuations, as the market seems to be sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.
On-chain metrics: Network activity is less than previous highs
Bitcoin’s active addresses, a key on-chain metric, reveal a divergence between price action and network activity. While the 100-day moving average of active addresses has rebounded, it has yet to reach its all-time high. This discrepancy suggests that a prolonged correction could occur if network activity declines further.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut of 0.25% dampened risk-asset sentiment. Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, experienced renewed pressure as the prospect of additional rate cuts diminished.
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, BTC’s price is exhibiting a notable correlation with the global money supply (Global M2). Historically, Bitcoin prices have followed Global M2 with a lag of approximately 10 weeks.
Over the past two months, Global M2 has dropped by $4.1 trillion, from a record $108.5 trillion in October to $104.4 trillion in December, the lowest level since August.
This decline signals potential downward pressure on Bitcoin prices if the trend persists. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the significance of this relationship, saying:
“As global money supply hit a new record of $108.5 trillion in October, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of $108,000. Over the last two months, however, money supply has dropped by $4.1 trillion. If the relationship still holds, this suggests that Bitcoin prices could fall as much as $20,000 over the next few weeks.”
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, BTC’s growing illiquid supply offers a counterbalance. André Dragosch of Bitwise highlighted this trend, noting that a higher illiquid supply indicates increased scarcity, which could support Bitcoin’s price.
While macro factors continue to exert downward pressure, on-chain tailwinds from Bitcoin’s supply deficit may mitigate the impact.
Dragosch expects BTC to remain volatile in early 2025 but believes the scarcity dynamics driven by its illiquid supply could provide attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors.
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