Ações de bancos e não Bitcoin são a principal aposta para 2025 – Wall Street
Os estrategistas de Wall Street estão se recuperando em torno das ações dos bancos como a principal escolha de investimento rumo a 2025. O otimismo é alimentado por vários fatores-chave: uma economia robusta dos EUA, expectativas de desregulamentação sob o presidente dent Donald Trump, avaliações competitivas e taxas de juros mais baixas
Equipes de investimento de grandes empresas como Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Barclays, Société Générale e JPMorgan Chase aconselharam a priorização de ações e ações para o próximo ano.
Analistas de alto nível como Savita Subramanian do Bank of America, Brian Belski do BMO e Chris Harvey do Wells Fargo estão entre aqueles que enfatizam o apelo das ações financeiras.
Numa nota recente a um cliente, Harvey destacou a subvalorização do sector, instando os gestores financeiros a mudarem o seu foco para acções financeiras. Da mesma forma, as perspectivas de Belski para 2025 reiteram que o sector financeiro continua a ser “drasticamente rejeitado”, apesar das tron previsões de crescimento dos lucros e dos preços trac .
Ações dos EUA lideram os mercados globais
Os analistas de Wall Street concordam amplamente em manter uma preferência pelas grandes empresas dos EUA. O índice S&P 500 está no trac certo para proporcionar um retorno total excepcional superior a 25% pelo segundo ano consecutivo, um feito que os economistas dizem ser raramente visto.
Perspectivas de ações de Wall Street para 2025 🔭 https://t.co/C1UoOm274S pic.twitter.com/uH6Of7zMux
— TKer (@TKerLLC) 8 de dezembro de 2024
Some analysts have acknowledged opportunities abroad, but most see the US market as the cornerstone for growth, especially as leadership shifts away from Big Tech toward sectors such as financials and utilities.
US stocks now account for more than half of the global equity market’s value, their highest share since late 2001. According to FactSet data, the heightened market activity is driven by superior earnings growth among the largest American firms.
Barclays’ chief US equity strategist, Venu Krishna, noted that the earnings outlook remains robust, with Big Tech still leading growth while other sectors slowly gain traction. The Trump administration’s proposed tax cuts and deregulation measures could further boost corporate earnings and economic expansion through increased deficit spending.
Economists: US stocks are garnering huge capital influx
JPMorgan’s global strategy group, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, predicts that these sectors will benefit from an influx of capital. His sentiments were echoed by Alex Blostein, a senior analyst at Goldman Sachs, who noted that approximately $7 trillion parked in money market funds is beginning to flow into the market, starting with fixed income and potentially moving into stocks.
The confidence in financials isn’t confined to analysts. Top bank executives have expressed similar sentiments, projecting a strong 2025 for the sector. At last month’s Invest conference, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan conveyed confidence in the US economy under the Trump administration, predicting swift policy actions.
Executives at JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs echoed this optimism during Goldman Sachs’ Financial Services conference. Denis Coleman, Goldman Sachs’ CFO, cited “elevated levels of optimism” going into 2025, while JPMorgan’s Consumer & Community Banking CEO Marianne Lake forecasted a rise in investment banking fees fueled by increased strategic transactions.
“We’re seeing an acceleration in client dialogues,” Coleman stated.
Analysts aware of Bitcoin’s progress
Meanwhile, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025. Lee has cemented his reputation for accurate market forecasts, successfully predicting the S&P 500’s 24% rally in 2023 and its rise to 6,000 points in 2024.
Lee has been bullish on Bitcoin, forecasting its price would surpass $100,000 this year, a prediction that came true. His investment thesis revolves around the growing demand for Bitcoin due to spot ETFs, reduced supply following block subsidy halvings, and favorable interest rate trends.
Despite his optimism, Lee warned of potential volatility in early 2025, with Bitcoin prices possibly falling to $60,000 before rebounding to $250,000 by year-end. He advised investors to approach Bitcoin with conviction, noting that its annual gains often occur within a brief 10-day period.
On the other hand, Wall Street veteran investor Dennis Gartman has dismissed BTC’s current rally as a strong investment case, saying he prefers Gold to the digital currency.
During an interview with Bloomberg, Dennis Gartman expressed surprise at Bitcoin’s recent surge beyond $100,000, likening the cryptocurrency’s rise to historical speculative bubbles. The Chairman of the Akron University Investment Committee drew parallels to the tulip mania of 16th-century Holland and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.
“This reminds me too much of the tulip bulb craze and the high-tech craze of the late 20th century,” Gartman remarked. “I will leave it to others to buy; I will avoid it.”
Gartman also pushed back against Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold,” arguing that the cryptocurrency’s limited track record falls short when compared to gold’s longstanding value as an asset.
“Bitcoin has been valued for months at some price. Gold has centuries of being valued as an asset,” he said. “I will take the centuries bet over the monthly bet almost anytime.”
Despite his skepticism, Gartman clarified that he has no intention of shorting Bitcoin. “I will leave it to people wiser or more daring than I am,” he added.
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