A chance de um corte na taxa de juros de 25 pontos base na próxima reunião do FOMC é de 98,6%
A ferramenta CME FedWatch apresentou uma probabilidade de 98,6% de que o FOMC recomendasse um corte de 25 pontos base na taxa de juros na próxima reunião de dois dias em dezembro. As possibilidades de um corte nas taxas continuam a aumentar, apesar do relatório de inflação elevada de Novembro.
O IPC (índice de preços ao consumidor) subiu em Novembro, subindo para 2,7%, face aos 2,6% de Outubro. Notavelmente, o aumento esteve em linha com as estimativas de economistas consultados pelo LSEG. O aumento do IPC afastou ainda mais o valor da inflação global da meta de taxa de 2% do Fed. Chris Zaccarelli, diretor de investimentos da Northlight Asset Management, disse que o aumento da inflação não seria suficiente para estragar o Natal.
Relatório de inflação não diminuirá chances de corte nas taxas de juros em dezembro
De acordo com a ferramenta CME FedWatch, um corte de 25 pb nas taxas é quase certo na próxima semana pic.twitter.com/bMrGwredGv
— Tunc Satiroglu (@kanalfinans) 12 de dezembro de 2024
According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps during the next policymakers’ meeting rose from 94.7% to 98.6%, even as inflation edged slightly higher in November.
Zaccarelli claimed that next week’s interest rate cut would enable markets to rally into the end of the year. He added that the Fed is likely to look through these recent month-to-month headline CPI fluctuations to continue on its easing path.
The Fed began the ongoing rate-cutting cycle with a huge 50 bps cut in September, followed by another 25 bps cut in November.
EY chief economist Gregory Daco and senior economist Lydia Boussour expected the Fed to continue cutting rates despite the latest inflation data. They thought it should be a closer call for the policymakers than the markets indicated.
“We believe economic fundamentals of gently decelerating labor market momentum, strong productivity growth and disinflationary under-currents would support a further 25 bps fed funds rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.”
–Daco and Boussour
Nearly 90% of the economists polled by Reuters expected the 25 bps reduction to bring the federal fund rate down to the 4.25%—4.50% range. However, there was no clear consensus among the polled economists about what the Fed would do beyond the January 2025 FOMC meeting.
Fed chair says the pace of interest rate cuts depends on economic conditions
Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said that the U.S. central bank was gradually lowering interest rates and would adjust the pace of rate cuts as needed based on economic conditions. He explained that monetary policy would be adjusted to best promote the country’s price stability and maximum employment goals.
According to Powell, the Fed would dial back policy restraint more slowly if the economy remained strong and inflation did not sustainably move towards 2%. He said the Fed would move quicker if the labor market weakened unexpectedly or inflation fell faster.
The Fed chair pointed out that the economy was not signaling the need to lower interest rates quickly. He added that the country’s economic strength allowed the Fed to approach its decisions carefully. The policy rate path would ultimately depend on how the economic outlook and incoming data evolved.
Powell said the smart move would be to navigate between moving too fast and too slow to ensure the Fed got it right. Going down the middle would help support the labor market and bring inflation down.
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