A taxa de inflação ao consumidor da China permanece inferior ao projetado, uma vez que as preocupações com a guerra comercial pesam sobre a economia
O Gabinete Nacional de Estatísticas informou que a inflação ao consumidor da China em Novembro desacelerou do que o previsto, aumentando apenas 0,2% em comparação com o ano passado. Analistas consultados pela Reuters esperavam que os preços de novembro aumentassem 0,5%, em vez do aumento de 0,3% de outubro.
O índice de preços ao produtor da China caiu pelo 26º mês consecutivo, com a queda de Novembro de 2,5% inferior aos 2,8% previstos pelos analistas na sondagem da Reuters. A queda nos preços de fábrica também foi menor em comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado. A inflação subjacente, que excluiu a volatilidade dos preços dos combustíveis e dos alimentos, subiu 0,3% em Novembro, face aos 0,2% de Outubro.
Ano após ano, os preços da carne suína e dos vegetais frescos aumentaram 13,7% e 10%, respectivamente. Os preços dos materiais metálicos ferrosos caíram 7,1%, levando à queda do índice de preços ao consumidor dos produtores industriais. As matérias-primas químicas despencaram 5%, enquanto os combustíveis e a energia tiveram uma queda de 6,5%.
Especialistas acreditam que a deflação da China continuará em meio a guerras comerciais
Os preços ao consumidor na China sobem menos do que o esperado à medida que a economia desacelera em meio a preocupações com a guerra comercial https://t.co/rC1SLLfQVd
— CNBC (@CNBC) 9 de dezembro de 2024
Erica Tay, the director of macro research at Maybank, said that China’s PPI deflation still seemed ‘quite entrenched’ although it had narrowed slightly. She told CNBC that accumulated producer inputs and finished goods inventories were sizable and grew from month to month.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, persistent near-zero retail inflation showed that China’s economy struggled with low domestic demand as wholesale prices remained deflationary. Domestic demand remained sluggish despite Beijing’s series of stimulus efforts since September, which included interest rate cuts, support for stock and property markets, and efforts to incentivize bank lending.
“We believe deflation will continue in China, especially based on the previous experience during trade wars.”
~ Becky Liu, Head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank
Liu said that PPI inflation typically fell to negative territory during trade wars, referencing the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. She pointed out that the situation was no different, adding that China’s producer price index inflation was likely to remain negative the following year.
Goldman Sachs predicts that China’s near-zero CPI figures will continue into 2025
The investment bank’s analysts similarly projected that China’s near-zero consumer price index figures would persist next year. The analysts, however, noted that some parts of the economy showed signs of recovery. China reported strong retail sales growth in October, beating expectations from Reuters analysts. In November, the second-largest economy in the world also showed expansion in manufacturing activities for two months in a row, according to Goldman Sachs.
According to CNBC, top Chinese leaders are expected to meet at the Central Economic Work Conference starting December 11th to discuss 2025’s stimulus measures and economic goals.
On December 9th, Fitch Ratings reduced their forecast of China’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.5% to 4.3%. The credit rating agency adjusted its September projections for 2026 growth downwards from 4.3% to 4%. Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings Chief Economist, assumed that the U.S. trade policies towards China would take a sharp ‘projectionist turn’ for 2025 and 2026. He noted that an extended decline in the property market posed a critical risk to the agency’s forecast, although there were ‘tentative signs of stabilization’.
Notably, China will report its November trade data and retail sales on December 10th and December 16th, respectively.
A Step-By-Step System To Launching Your Web3 Career and Landing High-Paying Crypto Jobs in 90 Days.
Artigos Recomendados
