Os mercados financeiros não confiam na capacidade do BoE de conter a inflação
De acordo com um relatório do Financial Times, o Banco de Inglaterra (BoE) enfrentou dúvidas dos mercados financeiros sobre a sua capacidade de cumprir o seu objectivo de inflação de 2%. O relatório revelou que, embora os números reais do banco central do Reino Unido mostrassem progressos positivos na contenção da inflação, os mercados financeiros permaneceram céticos em relação às projeções oficiais do BoE.
No ano passado, o BoE previu que a inflação se situaria nos 3%, uma vez que tanto as taxas de juro como o desemprego se manteriam acima dos 5% até ao final de 2024. No entanto, a situação revelou-se mais positiva, uma vez que o relatório revelou que a inflação diminuiu para mais perto da meta de 2%. enquanto as taxas de juros caíram para 4,75% e o desemprego foi baixo, em 4,3%.
O BoE combate as dúvidas do mercado em meio a pressões inflacionárias persistentes
Os mercados financeiros do Reino Unido não esperam que o BoE atinja o seu objectivo de inflação de 2%.
Isso é internacionalmente incomum
Eles esperam que a inflação atinja uma média de 3% nos próximos 50 anos ou mais….
…O que está acontecendo?
Meu último https://t.co/QBLYhH9g6T
Inscreva-se https://t.co/9W1LiN2e7a pic.twitter.com/S0KtPvinOu
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) 26 de novembro de 2024.
Clare Lombardelli, the BoE’s deputy governor for monetary policy, gave a speech yesterday at the annual BoE watchers’ conference seeking to address issues about the central bank’s credibility, policy, and forecasting. However, her speech gave several explanations for the market’s persistent belief in higher UK inflation, including doubt about RPI change.
Despite the seemingly good inflationary outcome, Lombardelli declared it was too early to declare victory on inflation. She noted that the outlook on salaries and services inflation was ‘unclear from here’ because the pace of wage growth was not slowing as much as expected.
Lombardelli warned the conference that a scenario in which companies and workers get used to wage rises of 3.5% to 4% and price inflation of 3% would be more costly to change if it becomes entrenched. However, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank predicted that inflation in the UK could rise to 3% in 2025.
“But at this point, I am more worried about the possible consequences if the upside materialised, as this could require a more costly monetary policy response.”
– Clare Lombardelli
Lombardelli said that she supported the gradual removal of monetary policy restrictions and would be monitoring the flow of data over the coming months so that the BoE could calibrate its policy path as needed.
Lombardelli addresses market doubts as other experts weigh in on the UK’s economic outlook
Lombardelli acknowledged the financial markets’ concerns and said the BoE was working to improve its forecasting models. While she admitted that the BoE’s efforts to improve its models were ongoing, Lombardelli confirmed that the changes in how the UK’s central bank predicted the future would be huge.
She expressed a ‘hawkish’ view on inflation, suggesting that the risks of inflation lasting for too long outweighed the risks of lower inflation. Her colleague on the monetary policy committee, Swati Dhingra, shared most of her sentiments but viewed the risks differently.
Overall, Lombardelli disclosed that the BoE was planning to gradually reduce its monetary policy until it had more information about inflation’s behavior. She also outlined the central bank’s plan to implement reforms suggested by Ben Bernanke, a former U.S. Fed chair and Nobel Prize winner.
Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, argued that central banks should aim to bring inflation down after periods of high inflation. DeAnne Julius, former UK monetary policy committee member, emphasized that the UK could face stagflation since the general economic outlook was more pessimistic.
Martin Sandbu argued that Europe needed to save less and suggested different policy changes to achieve this. He pointed out that many of the suggested policy changes were unpopular with the BoE.
A Step-By-Step System To Launching Your Web3 Career and Landing High-Paying Crypto Jobs in 90 Days.
Artigos Recomendados
