Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH could rise 10% upon a Trump win, investors de-risk ahead of election results

Ethereum price today: $ 2,450

• Ethereum exchange reserve and ETF data reveal increased selling activity among investors.
• ETH options data indicates a market in a "wait-and-see" mode.
• Ethereum could rally 10% to test the $2,707 resistance level if it overcomes the $2,500 psychological barrier.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,450 on Tuesday, but it could stage a 10% rise to test the $2,707 key resistance level if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. However, on-chain data reveals uncertainty and short-term bearish pressure as ETH investors appear to be de-risking ahead of the election results.

Ethereum investors are de-risking ahead of election results

With the US presidential election already ongoing, Ethereum investors are de-risking as on-chain data reveals a mix of uncertainty and selling among traders.

Ethereum exchange reserve has been on the rise since October 31, increasing by over 220,000 ETH worth about $540 million, per CryptoQuant's data. An Increase in a digital asset's exchange reserve indicates higher selling pressure among investors.

Ethereum Exchange Reserve (Source: CryptoQuant)

A similar trend is noticeable in flows of Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded net outflows of $63.2 million on Monday — its highest since September 23, per Coinglass data. The outflows were dominated by an exodus from the following funds:

• $31.9 million in Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) — its first day of outflows since launch.
• $31.5 million in Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) — its highest since launch.
• $10.8 million in Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH).

BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) was the only ETH ETF with positive flows, seeing a net inflow of $11 million.

Meanwhile, ETH options data from trading platform Derive reveals uncertainty among most derivatives traders.

In its recent October Trading insights report, the platform noted that 30% of Ethereum's open interest is fixed on the $2800 calls. "This indicates less bullish sentiment from the market, expecting a moderate upswing for ETH of 6.5%, while for BTC this is 12.5%," the report states.

Derive analysts also noted that the 7-day and 30-day ETH skews are close to zero, indicating neutral market sentiment. "ETH's flat skew points to a market in wait-and-see mode, closely monitoring potential regulatory shifts that could affect the DeFi landscape," said Nick Forster, Derive Founder.

Considering Republican candidate Donald Trump's promises to make America a crypto nation and Democrat candidate Kamala Harris' unclear stance on digital assets, most crypto investors favor a Trump win. As a result, the current de-risking among investors could be a cautionary approach until the election results are announced.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH could retest $2,707 resistance if it flips $2,500 psychological level

Ethereum is trading near $2,450, up 1% on the day, following $25.69 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours, per Coinglass data. Long and short liquidations accounted for $16.70 million and $8.98 million, respectively.

The top altcoin is aiming to move above the resistance level near the $2,500 psychological important zone. This resistance level is also strengthened by a convergence of the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

If ETH successfully moves above the $2,500 resistance and the SMAs convergence, it could extend its rise by 10% to test the $2,707 resistance — a level ETH has failed to sustain an extended move above since August.

However, if ETH sees a rejection near the $2,500 level, it could decline toward a descending trendline extending from May 27 and near the $2,250 to $2,350 range — a historically high demand zone for the top altcoin.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending toward its midline. A move above it will strengthen the bullish momentum.

A daily candlestick close below $2,250 will invalidate the thesis.