O mercado aguarda o anúncio das taxas de juros do Fed esta semana, em 7 de novembro
De acordo com os dados do CME GROUP, havia uma grande probabilidade de que a próxima reunião do Comité Federal de Mercado Aberto (FOMC), de 6 a 7 de Novembro, recomendasse um corte da taxa de juro de 0,25% por parte da Reserva Federal. A taxa básica deverá cair de 4,75% para 4,50%.
Os economistas previram que a próxima reunião do FOMC continuaria a votar a favor dos cortes nas taxas iniciados no ciclo de flexibilização do Fed que começou em Setembro. Mais de 90% dos economistas consultados pela Reuters estavam dent de que as taxas dos fundos do Fed cairiam para a faixa de 4,25% a 4,50% até o final de 2024. Quase 80% dos economistas projetaram que as taxas dos fundos do Fed cairiam ainda mais para 3,0% a 3,50% até o final de 2025.
Observadores do mercado criptográfico monitorarão de perto as eleições dent dos EUA
Bom dia de Londres! Estamos na 🇺🇸 Semana Eleitoral!
📍 As probabilidades atuais mostram DJ Trump liderando a corrida
📍 Terça-feira é dia de eleição – espere volatilidade do mercado, especialmente em BTC, petróleo e USD
📍 🇬🇧 e 🇺🇸 ambos devem reduzir as taxas em 25 pontos base na quinta-feira
📍 Os principais ganhos de capitalização média relatam isto… pic.twitter.com/9Cphjcwn5F— Dr. Alex Koh (@alexkoh) 4 de novembro de 2024
The pre-election crypto market volatility suggests that the 2024 U.S. presidential elections could be the most crypto-influenced yet. With the crypto community slightly leaning toward Trump, many hope that his victory and pro-crypto stance could solidify the use of U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins in foreign trade.
Crypto investors, including Mark Cuban, also continued to push for replacing U.S. SEC chair Gary Gensler, a stance strongly supported by Trump. A Bernstein September analysis report revealed that a Trump win could catapult Bitcoin price to over $80K. Meanwhile, memecoins such as the Dogecoin mentioned by Elon Musk during a few pro-Trump rallies could also be highly affected by election results.
Bitcoin’s upward movement matched pre-halving momentum as the crypto market reacted to the recent Fed rate cuts.
Dritan Nesho, the CEO of HarrisX, stated that everything, including Trump’s win, was possible in a statistically tied election race. A new national poll conducted by Forbes and HarrisX showed that Kamala Harris had a slight edge over Trump in what could turn out to be the most closely contested elections in the United States history.
“The race is a statistical tie, and it’s going to be a squeaker of an election. Trump has gained in the national vote, but Harris has narrowed the race in the battleground states.”
–Dritan Nesho
Goldman Sachs predicted approximately six successive 25 bps rate cuts starting in November 2024 through 2025. Economists reported no indications of rate cut interruptions. Radix Financial’s Amy Hubble disclosed that the Fed’s lowered rate would affect markets differently and in ‘different magnitudes.’
Weak jobs report unlikely to affect the Fed’s rate cuts
Fed policymakers claimed there was a strong chance the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates despite a weak jobs report showing an unemployment rate rise from 3.4% to 4.1% over the past 18 months. Only 12k jobs were added in October, well below the projected 113K jobs.
Nearly all Fed officials making public remarks about the last rate cuts expressed confidence in the unemployment rate at 4.1% and the reducing inflation to almost the desired 2%. According to San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly, there was no information suggesting the Fed wouldn’t continue reducing the interest rate.
Thomas Simons, the senior economist at Jefferies, said the current information did not suggest that the overall economy desperately needed easing, but 25 bps cuts were still expected in the next two FOMC meetings. Job creation and consumer spending looked particularly robust, while price pressures increased slightly since the initial Fed rate cuts in September.
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