Baleia Polymarket carrega grande perda não realizada após injetar US$ 7 milhões em novas apostas Trump
Uma das principais baleias do Polymarket injetou outros US$ 7 milhões nos tokens “Sim” de Trump, apostando na vitória eleitoral. À medida que as apostas esquentam, a manipulação do mercado e as posições de risco também ficam mais visíveis na plataforma de apostas.
A atividade das baleias no Polymarket acelerou nos últimos dias, com uma mistura de verdadeiros crentes e suspeitos de manipuladores de mercado. Um dos mais recentes apoiadores da vitória de Trump continuou a comprar tokens ‘Sim’ com um novo depósito de US$ 7,03 milhões da Kraken. A nova entrada de fundos soma-se aos 70 milhões de dólares gastos pelas baleias no apoio à potencial vitória de Trump.
A baleia tem uma perda não realizada estimada em US$ 714 mil depois que os tokens ‘Sim’ de Trump caíram de US$ 0,66 para US$ 0,61.
Esta conta é titular, mas há outros traders pressionando ativamente para baixo o preço da aposta na vitória de Trump. Algumas das contas estão até sendo vendidas com prejuízo, causando uma reversão de tendência e maior volatilidade.
Quer saber por que Kamala Harris está em alta no Polymarket?
No momento, um monte de contas sem nome estão gerando atividade, VENDO COM PREJUÍZO!
Em vários caminhos de apostas, eles estão manipulando as probabilidades e criando pressão descendente para Trump e GOP, e pressão ascendente… pic.twitter.com/DVpVyN2QgM
— BELICHE (@wrongsns) 31 de outubro de 2024
Additional market pressure comes from arbitrage opportunities, with cross-selling possible on different betting markets. Traders recently noticed the Kamala Harris ‘Yes’ tokens were valued higher on PredictIt, leading to further market manipulation. The most recent trades show that Polymarket is not a reliable predictor of the true outcome of the US election.
Polymarket faces multiple betting pressures
Polymarket is still not considered an official prediction, as there are doubts about wash trading. In the past week, one buyer rushed enough orders to put Trump’s odds to 99%, costing around $3M. Currently, price pressures require much higher bids to sway the market.
The profile of traders betting on a Trump victory is different from that of the Kamala Harris side of the bet. Most of the Trump bets are concentrated through whale wallets. Bets on the opposite side are more widely distributed with small-scale buyers.
To further complicate the picture, some of the small-scale users on Polymarket may be airdrop farmers, expecting the platform will consider launching its native token. Up to 44% of Polymarket bets are under $50 and may be considered small-scale betting or outright airdrop mining. But it is the 0.01% of bets above $100K that have the biggest effects on the market and sway the chart the most.
The past month saw no lack of new users of every size, ready to bet on one of the biggest pairs in Polymarket’s history. In October, Polymarket added a total of 300,386 new accounts.
Open interest also went vertical at more than $358B for all markets. Of that open interest, up to 91% went to US election issues as of October 14, contracting slightly in the past two weeks. Despite this, whales with convictions still hold their positions, even with big unrealized gains.
Among the top 10 holders, only three hold unrealized gains, with the rest still waiting out the turbulence. At least four accounts are associated with Fredi9999, one of the top traders on Polymarket, and they reveal a mix of unrealized gains and losses.
Top trader on Polymarket not politically motivated
The identity of Polymarket’s top betting whale on the US elections has been confirmed as a French trader motivated by mathematics and odds more than by politics. The whale, whose biggest account Fredi9999 is at the top of the leaderboards, confirmed his identity for the Wallstreet Journal.
The trader, identified as a French national and going by the name of Theo for the Journal’s piece, said he was not politically motivated. He was also not trying to sway the perception of the elections, but he was confident in beating the odds. The Polymarket whale stated he only used personal funds to make the bets, though with no independent confirmation on the funding source.
The trader’s main intent is just to make money, which at least the lead Fredi9999 account achieved. After favorable buying, the account holds more than $1M in unrealized gains. At the same time, the bets made on a popular vote and electoral college win could erase $30M in positions if the elections go against Theo’s bets. At this point, Fredi9999 and all the related smaller accounts can hardly start unwinding their positions without sparking a market-wide panic and crashing the odds.
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