WTI tumbles to a four-year low near $60.00 amid Trump’s tariff woes
- WTI price edges lower to $60.30 in Monday’s Asian session.
- Economic uncertainty and recession fears trigger WTI price decline.
- OPEC+ decided to raise crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.30 during the early Asian session on Monday. The WTI price falls to its lowest point since April 2021 amid the fears that US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the United States (US) into a recession.
Traders worry about an escalating trade war from Trump’s global tariffs, which will sharply slow economic growth and raise fears of a slowdown in economic activity both in the US and globally. This, in turn, continues to undermine the WTI price. The tariffs, which are set to take effect this week, “would likely push the US and possibly the global economy into recession this year,” according to JPMorgan analysts.
A surprise output increase by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) contributes to the WTI’s downside. OPEC+ announced plans to increase output, aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.
Oil traders will closely monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for March, which is due later on Thursday. Any signs of cooler inflation in the US could weigh on the Greenback and provide some support to the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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