Gold price stabilizes ahead of Trump's tariffs announcement on “Liberation Day”
- Gold price halts rally and stabilizes just above $3,100 on Wednesday.
- Markets are bracing for the official announcement of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs.
- Gold traders might start to unwind the Gold rush rally should the impact be far less severe than anticipated.
Gold price (XAU/USD) stabilizes just above $3,130 at the time of writing on Wednesday following a mean reversal move the prior day after a fresh all-time high got eked out at $3,149 before closing in negative territory. The Gold rush rally stalled ahead of United States (US) President Donald Trump officially announcing the reciprocal tariff implementation later this Wednesday at the White House with his entire cabinet present. However, with uncertainty building up towards this day, the announcement itself could be less impactful than initially thought, resulting in a sharp correction for Gold this week as a "buy the rumour, sell the news" event.
Meanwhile, traders are gearing up for the always-important private sector employment data provided by Automatic Data Processing (ADP). Although there is no proven correlation with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday, traders still see it as a litmus test. Expectations are for a surge of 105,000 new employment in private jobs in March, compared to 77,000 in February. This could make sense as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been trying to push public sector employees towards private jobs.
Daily digest market movers: The event just around the corner
- The White House has been reluctant to provide details of the targets and scale of the levies, which will be applied right after they are rolled out at the 20:00 GMT event in Washington this Wednesday. The pending announcement has driven a new wave of volatility, including a US stock selloff. While uncertain times are generally good for Gold, investors are keen to see the impact of the next set of levies on trade, the global economy and geopolitics, Bloomberg reports.
- The CME FedWatch tool sees chances for a rate cut in May standing at 15.8%. A rate cut in June is still the most plausible outcome, with only a 25.6% chance for rates to remain at current levels.
- Huaan Yifu Gold ETF, the largest such investment vehicle in China, received record inflows of 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) on Monday. Followed by another 1 billion Yuan, the second-highest, on the following day. The frantic pace of buying means Gold ETFs now have the biggest assets under management among all commodity-related peers in China, Reuters reports.
Gold Price Technical Analysis: Black box to be revealed
Again, this is a “parental advisory” just ahead of the main event for this Wednesday. With the primary tailwind for the Goldrush set to be officially announced, the “buy the rumour, sell the fact” rule of thumb should be considered. The risk could be that once the reciprocal tariffs take effect on Wednesday, only easing due to profit-taking in Gold could occur once separate trade agreements and partial unwinds take place.
On the upside, the daily R1 resistance at $3,141 is the first level to consider, followed by the $3,149 all-time high. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,169 could still be targeted later in the day. Beyond that, the broader upside target stands at $3,200.
On the downside, the S1 support at $3,093 is quite far, though it could still be tested without completely erasing this week’s gains. Further down, the S2 support at $3,073 should ensure that Gold does not fall back below $3,000.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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