Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses ground to near $2,765 on renewed US Dollar demand
- Gold price drifts lower to near $2,765 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Colombia as deported migrant flights were denied, lifting the USD.
- The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $2,765 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. However, the potential downside for the precious metal might be limited amid the cautious mood and uncertainty surrounding tariff measures by US President Donald Trump.
The Greenback strengthens as Trump kicks off a trade war with tariffs. On Sunday, Trump imposed sweeping retaliatory measures on Colombia, including tariffs and sanctions, after the South American country refused to allow two military planes carrying deported migrants to land. Trump said that he will order an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. This headline weighs on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Gold traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold interest rates steady at its January meeting on Wednesday. The FOMC Press Conference will be closely watched as it might offer some hints about the US rate path. At the World Economic Forum last week, Trump called for an immediate interest rate cut, causing the USD to hit its lowest level in over a month and supporting the Gold price. However, if the Fed officials deliver hawkish remarks this week, this might drag the non-yielding yellow metal lower.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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