Oil: US crude stocks fall – ING

Oil prices continued their move higher yesterday with ICE Brent breaking above US$82/bbl and trading to its highest level since August 2024, ING’s commodity analyst Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Oil market continues to focus on the uncertainty around Russian oil

“This is despite Israel and Hamas appearing to have reached a ceasefire, although the Israeli Prime Minister’s office has said that details still need to be finalized. US CPI data would have been supportive for the oil market and risk assets in general. Core inflation for December came in lower than expected.”

“The oil market continues to be focused on the uncertainty around Russian oil supply following the announcement of stricter US sanctions against the Russian energy sector. In addition, tighter US crude oil stocks will be supportive. EIA data yesterday showed that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96m barrels, which leaves inventories at a little under 413m barrels, the lowest level since March 2022.”

“The decline over the last week was driven by crude oil imports falling 304k b/d WoW and exports rising by 1m b/d WoW. For refined products, despite refinery utilisation falling by 1.6pp over the week, gasoline and distillate stocks still increased by 5.85m barrels and 3.08m barrels respectively.”