IEA lifts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million bpd

In its monthly oil market report published on Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 990,000 bpd.

Additional takeaways

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 840k bpd versus the previous forecast of 920k bpd.

Sees comfortable oil supply in 2025.

Predicts a 1.4 million barrels per day oversupply by 2025 if OPEC+ increases production.

Reports preliminary data showing global oil reserves increased in November.

OPEC+ delay in supply cuts significantly reduces 2025 oil surplus.

Reports OECD industry stockpiles decreased by 30.9 million barrels in October.

Non-OPEC+ supply to increase by almost 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024-2025.

Global oil supply to increase by 630,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 1.9 million in 2025.

China's oil demand to increase by 140k barrels per day in 2024 and 220k barrels per day in 2025.

Current balances indicate a 950k bpd supply overhang in 2025 if OPEC+ starts unwinding voluntary cuts by the end of March 2025.