OPEC+ production increase likely to be postponed for another three months – Commerzbank

OPEC+ is expected to decide on Thursday to postpone the production increase for a further three months until the end of the first quarter, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC+ to postpone the production increase for a next three months

“This was reported by Reuters, citing four OPEC+ sources. As this would be largely in line with market expectations, the impact on the oil price is likely to be neutral. Nevertheless, there are still uncertainties.”

“The United Arab Emirates would also need to agree to a postponement, as they were granted a gradual increase in oil production totalling 300 thousand barrels per day six months ago, which was set to begin in January. However, it is hard to imagine that the voluntary production cuts will remain in place in full for another three months while one country is allowed to increase production.”

“In this context, the production figures from a Bloomberg survey, according to which the UAE significantly increased production in November and thus produced almost 350 thousand barrels per day more than agreed, could also create potential for conflict. Iraq, on the other hand, reduced its production and thus came as close as 50 thousand barrels per day to the production target, if the compensatory cuts are not factored in.”