WTI recovers above $70.00 as Russia-Ukraine war escalates
- WTI price gains momentum to near 70.25 in Friday’s Asian session.
- The supply worries due to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war lift the WTI price.
- US crude oil inventories built and a stronger USD might cap the WTI’s upside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.25 on Friday. The WTI price edges higher as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict raises the fear of crude supply disruption.
The fears of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict fuelled the WTI price this week after Ukraine used missiles supplied by the US and UK into Russian territory. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility. Putin also warned the West that Moscow could attack any country's military installations that utilised weapons against Russia, per Reuters. "The market's focus has now shifted to heightened concerns about an escalation in the war in Ukraine," said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB.
On the other hand, a rise in US crude inventories last week might weigh on the black gold. The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report showed Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending November 15 increased by 0.545 million barrels, compared to a rise of 2.089 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by 0.400 million barrels.
Furthermore, the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might cap the upside for the USD-denominated oil for the time being as it makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, currently trades near 107.05 after hitting a fresh year-to-date high of around 107.15.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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