Gold price collapses to two-week low amid robust US economic data
- Gold prices fall 5% from July 17 peak of $2,483 to $2,364.
- US Q2 GDP beats expectations, strengthening the US Dollar and impacting gold.
- Market certainty grows for a Fed rate cut in September as Treasury yields decline.
Gold price tumbled to a two-week low on Thursday after the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the economy in the United States (US) fared better than expected in the second quarter of 2024. This weighed on the precious metal, which lost over 1.30%, and XAU/USD trades at $2,364 at the time of writing.
Bullion prices hit their highest level on July 17, at $2,483; since then, they have fallen about 5% toward the current spot price. XAY/USD’s fall is mostly attributed to profit-taking as US Treasury yields also dropped while the Greenback remained firm.
US data revealed that the Gross Domestic Product in Q2 was better than expected, crushing the first-quarter numbers. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dipped compared to the week ending July 30. Durable Goods Orders contracted more than -6%, though excluding aircraft and transport, they recovered from May’s drop.
Despite all that, the US 10-year Treasury note coupon edged lower by more than four basis points (bps) and ended at 4.245% on Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool data, investors seem 100% certain that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates a quarter of a percentage point at the September meeting.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price on the backfoot as US GDP advances
- US GDP for Q2 2024 jumped from 1.4% to 2.8% QoQ, exceeding forecasts of 2% on its advance reading.
- US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 20 rose by 235K, less than the estimated 238K and lower than the previous week's 245K.
- US Durable Goods Orders plummeted by -6.6% MoM in June, significantly below the estimated 0.3%. However, Core Durable Goods, which excludes aircraft, expanded by 0.5% MoM, up from -0.1% and above the consensus projection of 0.2%.
- The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE, is expected to dip from 2.6% to 2.5% year-over-year (YoY).
Technical analysis: Gold price falls below $2,400 with sellers eyeing $2,300
Bullion extended its losses once it achieved a daily close below $2,400 on Wednesday, which exacerbated a drop to familiar levels. Short-term momentum favors sellers, as portrayed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which just pierced the 50-neutral line.
Therefore, the XAU/USD might continue to edge lower. If sellers drag prices below the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $2,359, the next support would be the July 25 daily low of $2,353. Once those levels are removed, the 100-DMA would be up next at $2,324, ahead of diving to the $2,300 mark.
Conversely, buyers need to clear the $2,400 figure to test the all-time high (ATH) at around $2,483.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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