EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains capped below 1.0400, bullish bias prevails
- EUR/USD tumbles to around 1.0375 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
- The positive view of the pair prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1400; the initial support level to watch is 1.1315.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.0375 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Greenback amid rising expectations of further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in June and mixed signals on US-China trade relations.
Technically, the positive outlook of the EUR/USD pair remains in play as the price is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 61.95, suggesting that further upside looks favorable.
The immediate resistance level for the major pair emerges at the 1.1400 psychological level. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 1.1547, the high of April 22. Extended gains could see a rally to 1.1648, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.
On the other hand, the first downside target to watch is 1.1315, the low of April 24. A breach of this level could expose 1.1000, the round figure. The key contention level is located at 1.0830, representing the confluence of the 100-day EMA and the lower limit of the Bollinger Band.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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