GBP/USD declines below 1.3450 ahead of BoE’s Ramsden speech
- GBP/USD weakens to around 1.3425 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Improved optimism over trade tension supports the US dollar and creates a headwind for the pair.
- Traders brace for the BoE’s Dave Ramsden speech later on Tuesday.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.3425 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by a modest rebound of US Dollar (USD). Investors await a speech by Bank of England (BoE) official Dave Ramsden for fresh impetus.
The Greenback strengthens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as the fears of trade tensions ease. China exempted some US imports from its 125% tariffs on Friday, raising hopes that the trade war between the US and China is nearing an end, although China quickly knocked down US President Donald Trump's assertion that trade talks between the two countries were underway.
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs. Rollins further stated that there were ongoing talks between the two nations and that trade deals with other nations were “very close.”
On the GBP’s front, firm expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% in the May meeting continue to weigh on the GBP. Investors will be closely watching a speech by Bank of England (BoE) official Dave Ramsden later on Tuesday. Any dovish comments could weaken the Cable in the near term.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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