AUD/JPY remains above 90.50 following disappointing Japan’s export data
- AUD/JPY edges higher as the Japanese Yen retreats following weaker-than-expected export figures from Japan for March.
- Japan’s exports rose 3.9% year-over-year, missing the 4.5% forecast and sharply down from February’s 11.4% surge.
- The Australian Dollar remains under pressure after Thursday’s release of mixed domestic employment data.
AUD/JPY recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading near 90.70 during Thursday’s European session. The recovery is largely driven by weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), following disappointing export data from Japan for March. Export growth rose just 3.9% year-over-year to JPY 9,847.8 billion, falling short of the expected 4.5% increase. This marks a significant slowdown from the 11.4% surge in February, which had been bolstered by US steel and aluminum tariffs. However, a rebound in imports suggests domestic demand remains relatively resilient.
Adding to the narrative, Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that foreign exchange issues were not part of the ongoing trade talks in Washington. Japan is pressing for a full removal of the Trump-era tariffs, including a 10% base tariff and an additional 25% levy on car exports. Akazawa indicated that Japan is seeking a mutually beneficial agreement as soon as possible, while also noting the US appears keen to strike a deal within the current 90-day negotiation window.
Despite the JPY's softness, gains in the AUD/JPY pair may be limited due to headwinds facing by the Australian Dollar (AUD). Australia’s latest employment report showed the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in March, just under the forecasted 4.2%. Meanwhile, Employment Change came in at 32.2K, missing the expected 40K figure.
The AUD found some support from improving global risk sentiment, after US President Donald Trump announced exemptions for key technology products from the proposed “reciprocal” tariffs. These exemptions—covering smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat-panel displays—primarily benefit goods made in China, Australia’s largest trading partner and also a major buyer of its commodities. However, Trump simultaneously launched a probe into potential tariffs on critical minerals, further escalating trade tensions with China.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
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