EUR/USD rises above 1.1050 ahead of US NFP release
- EUR/USD climbs to around 1.1080 in Friday’s early European session, adding 0.67% on the day.
- Trump announced a 20% tariff on European Union imports, effective on April 9.
- Money markets have priced in nearly 80% odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut in April.
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 1.1080 during the early European session on Friday bolstered by the broader US Dollar weakness. Investors await the German Factory Orders and US employment report, which will be published later on Friday.
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled sweeping global tariffs of at least 10% on goods imported from most US trading partners. The Trump administration plans to impose a 20% tariff on EU goods and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners. The tariffs will take effect on April 9.
Worries about the impact of an escalating global trade war and a slew of weaker-than-expected US data raise the fear of a sharp global economic slowdown. This, in turn, drags the USD lower and acts as a tailwind for EUR/USD.
Across the pond, the markets increased their bets on future European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts on Thursday as the tariff announcement by Trump increased fears of a trade war that would hurt the Eurozone growth. Money markets have priced in a nearly 80% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) ECB rate cut in the April meeting, according to the Reuters poll. The rising expectation of ECB rate reduction could weigh on the shared currency in the near term.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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