SEK: Some dovish risks after hawkish repricing – ING

The Riksbank’s Executive Board testifies before parliament this morning, and that can bring about some market-moving headlines. Markets have heavily shifted on the hawkish side of the spectrum and now expect the Bank to be done with easing, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/SEK remains incidentally quite cheap in short term

"A key driver of this shift was the set of hot inflation figures for February, but we suspect markets may be underestimating both the volatility of CPI data and the impact of US tariffs. The risks are skewed to the dovish side – and to the downside for SEK – ahead of today’s parliamentary testimony."

"EUR/SEK remains incidentally quite cheap in short-term valuation terms and signs of instability in EU sentiment can trigger a rebound above 11.0 this week. We still favour a stabilisation in the 11.0-11.20 range in the next two quarters."