USD/CAD holds below 1.4450 on softer US Dollar, investors await US PMI release
- USD/CAD softens to near 1.4440 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Canada's Q4 GDP grew by 2.6% on an annualized basis, stronger than expected.
- Trump will set exact levels for Mexico, Canada tariffs coming Tuesday.
The USD/CAD pair weakens to around 1.4440 during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected Canadian economic growth and the recovery in crude oil prices support the Loonie. The US February ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will take center stage later on Monday.
Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed that Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) expanded by 2.6% on an annualized basis, beating the estimation of 1.9%. "The Canadian economy has certainly faced some headwinds but it exited 2024 in a stronger position than believed," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.
Meanwhile, a rise in crude oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he intended to move forward with threatened 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, which are set to come into effect on Tuesday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding further Trump’s tariff policies. Any signs of trade tensions could lift the Greenback against the CAD in the near term.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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