Forex Today: Markets stay focused on politics as Euro rises on German election results
Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 24:
The Euro (EUR) gathers strength against its rivals to begin the week as investors assess the results of the German election. Later in the session, IFO sentiment data from Germany will be featured in the European docket and Eurostat will publish revisions to the January inflation data. In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will release National Activity Index data for January.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.44% | -0.23% | 0.19% | -0.25% | -0.32% | -0.27% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.46% | 0.00% | 0.11% | -0.02% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | -0.12% | 0.40% | -0.11% | -0.01% | -0.13% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.46% | -0.40% | -0.44% | -0.42% | -0.38% | -0.22% | |
| CAD | 0.25% | -0.00% | 0.11% | 0.44% | -0.12% | -0.02% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.32% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.42% | 0.12% | -0.13% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.38% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.15% | -0.02% | 0.22% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, won the German election by securing about 28.6% of total votes. The far-right AfD came second with 20.8% and Olaf Scholz's SPD dropped to third with 16.4%. Following these results, a two-party coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD seem to be the mostly likely scenario. With the outcome largely falling in line with the polls, the Euro started the new week on a bullish note. At the time of press, EUR/USD was up 0.5% on the day above 1.0500. Reflecting the broad-based EUR strength, EUR/GBP trades in positive territory slightly above 0.8300 and EUR/JPY gains more than 0.5% near 157.00.
Following Friday's recovery attempt, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays on the back foot and trades at its lowest level since early December below 106.50. US President Donald Trump will participate in a G7 leaders call on Monday and he will be holding a press conference with President Emmanuel Macron later in the day.
Gold struggles to find direction early Monday and extends its sideways grind above $2,930 for the fourth consecutive trading day.
GBP/USD benefits from the selling pressure surrounding the USD and trades above 1.2650 in the European morning on Monday.
After losing nearly 2% in the previous week, USD/JPY holds its ground to begin the new week and trades marginally higher on the day at around 149.50.
During the Asian trading hours, the data from New Zealand showed that Retail Sales rose by 0.9% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%. NZD/USD gained traction on the upbeat data and was last seen gaining nearly 0.3% at 0.5760.
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
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