USD/CHF holds steady above 0.9100, US CPI data in focus
- USD/CHF flat lines around 0.9130 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Fed’s Powell said the central bank is still in no rush to lower rates.
- The rising Middle East geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc.
The USD/CHF pair trades on a flat note around 0.9130 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders await further information from US President Donald Trump on potential trade tariffs. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller are scheduled to speak.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized in testimony before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee that the US central bank does not need to be in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy. Powell added that policy is well-positioned to deal with risks and uncertainties.
"The uncertainty is likely enough to keep Fed officials on the sidelines over the coming months, and if high tariffs are ultimately imposed then the subsequent rise in inflation will prevent further easing over the remainder of 2025," noted Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.
The US CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.9% YoY in January versus 2.9% prior, while the Core CPI inflation is estimated to ease to 3.1% YoY in January from 3.2% in the previous reading. If the report shows a hotter-than-expected outcome, this could lift the US Dollar (USD) broadly.
On the Swiss front, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the Swiss Franc (CHF), a safe-haven currency. Late Tuesday, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the ceasefire will be over and Israel will resume “intense fighting” in Gaza if Hamas doesn’t release “our hostages” by Saturday noon.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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