USD/CHF holds positive ground near 0.9100, eyes on US PCE release
- USD/CHF posts modest gains to around 0.9100 in Friday’s early European session.
- The US economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in Q4.
- The safe-haven flows could support the Swiss Franc.
The USD/CHF pair trades with mild gains to near 0.9100 during the early European session on Friday. The hawkish hold from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) provides some support to the US Dollar (USD). Investors will take more cues from the US December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which is due later on Friday. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is set to speak.
The US central bank left interest rates unchanged Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference that the US economy remains strong, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. Therefore, the central bank doesn’t need to be in a hurry to adjust its policy stance. Following the January Fed meeting, the markets see less than a 50% odds that the Fed will cut rates before its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. This, in turn, lift the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF).
Nonetheless, the downbeat US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data undermines the USD. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of fourth quarter US GDP revealed the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.3% in Q4, below the 2.6% growth estimated. The reading came in weaker than the 3.1% growth seen in Q3.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza went into effect a week ago. Meanwhile, Lebanon the November ceasefire in Lebanon is holding despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets. Investors will closely monitor the development surrounding geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions in the region could boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the Swiss Franc.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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