USD/CHF Price Forecast: Soars towards 0.9090 on Trump’s trade rhetoric
- USD/CHF approaches 0.9100, gaining 0.33% amid U.S. trade tensions with neighbors.
- Technical rebound as USD/CHF recaptures 0.9000 after dipping below 50-day SMA.
- Potential rise toward 0.9152 if bulls overcome the 0.9100 resistance, with 0.9200 in sight.
The USD/CHF rallied for the third consecutive day, edged towards the 0.9100 figure, and posted gains of over 0.33%. US President Donald Trump's tariff threats to Canada and Mexico bolstered the Greenback, which recovered after the US Dollar Index (DXY) dived to a three-day low of 107.50.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/CHF uptrend remains intact, although the pair briefly edged below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8963 on Tuesday before reclaiming the 0.9000 figure.
Momentum turned bullish after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed above its neutral line, an indication that bulls are in charge.
Therefore, further upside in the USD/CHF is seen. Once bulls reclaim 0.9100, a rally toward the January 17 swing high of 0.9152 is on the cards. On further strength, the next resistance would be the 0.9200 mark.
Conversely, sellers must clear the 50-day SMA at 0.8984, followed by the January 27 swing low of 0.8964.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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