Forex Today: ECB policy decisions, US GDP data to drive market action
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 30:
Markets turn relatively quiet early Thursday as investors gear up for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision and the first estimate of the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the US, while assessing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy announcements. The US economic calendar will also feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and December Pending Home Sales data.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.78% | 0.36% | -0.71% | 0.45% | 1.55% | 1.17% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.78% | -0.34% | -1.32% | -0.19% | 0.77% | 0.51% | -0.50% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | 0.34% | -1.31% | 0.16% | 1.12% | 0.88% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.71% | 1.32% | 1.31% | 1.20% | 2.46% | 2.14% | 1.03% | |
| CAD | -0.45% | 0.19% | -0.16% | -1.20% | 0.91% | 0.72% | -0.31% | |
| AUD | -1.55% | -0.77% | -1.12% | -2.46% | -0.91% | -0.22% | -1.23% | |
| NZD | -1.17% | -0.51% | -0.88% | -2.14% | -0.72% | 0.22% | -1.23% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | 0.50% | 0.15% | -1.03% | 0.31% | 1.23% | 1.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Following the January meeting, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% as expected. In its policy statement, the Fed removed the language suggesting inflation had "made progress" toward its 2% target, instead stating that the pace of price increases "remains elevated." While responding to questions from the press later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that there was elevated uncertainty because of significant policy shifts. "We don't need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments," he added. After the Fed event, the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in March dropped below 20% from above-30%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ended the day marginally higher before going into a consolidation phase at around 108.00 early Thursday.
The ECB is expected to lower key rates by 25 bps on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver the policy statement and respond to questions in a press conference starting at 13:45 GMT. EUR/USD fluctuates in a tight range slightly above 1.0400 after closing virtually unchanged on Wednesday. Eurostat will publish preliminary Q4 GDP data later in the session.
GBP/USD continues to move up and down in a narrow range slightly below 1.2450 after failing to make a decisive move in either direction on Wednesday.
USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades near 154.50. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Thursday that the central bank will raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 3% after the January meeting, as anticipated. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem noted that the Canadian Dollar's movements had not constrained them so far but added that they will have to take bigger moves in the exchange rate into account as they set policy going forward. USD/CAD posted small gains on Wednesday and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day above 1.4400.
After falling below $2,750 in the first half of the day on Wednesday, Gold regained its traction and erased a large portion of its daily losses. XAU/USD edges higher toward $2,770 in the early European session on Thursday.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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