GBP/USD struggles near 1.2350 as Trump’s tariff hikes proposal remains afloat
- GBP/USD inched lower as Trump confirmed that the universal tariff hikes proposal remains afloat.
- US President Donald Trump issued a memorandum instructing federal agencies to investigate and address ongoing trade deficits.
- The latest UK labor market report provides the BoE with a "green light to cut in February."
GBP/USD pauses its two-day rally, trading around 1.2330 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair remains subdued as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto modest gains. US President Donald Trump confirmed that the proposal for universal tariff hikes is still under consideration, although he stated, "We are not ready for that yet." Additionally, Trump issued a memorandum directing federal agencies to investigate and address the ongoing trade deficits.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, holds ground around 108.00 at the time of writing. However, the Greenback faced headwinds as Trump opted not to impose new tariffs on his first day in office.
However, the USD could recover its recent losses in the near term as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range during its January meeting. Investors anticipate that Trump's policies could increase inflationary pressures, which might limit the Fed to only one more rate cut.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) came under pressure after the release of labor market data from the United Kingdom (UK) on Tuesday. The ILO Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, along with the sharpest drop in payroll numbers since November 2020, signaling a potential weakening in the labor market.
Following the labor market report, analysts at Nomura noted that this data provides the BoE with a "green light to cut in February." Markets are also betting on one or two more reductions after February.
Last week's data pointed to an unforeseen slowdown in inflation and weaker-than-expected economic growth. As a result, the Bank of England (BoE) is widely anticipated to lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% during its policy meeting on February 6.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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